TattsBet News 12th July

RUGBY LEAGUE

State of Origin is over for another year, and even though there is conjecture as to where the games will be played next year, Tattsbet has opened a market for the 2013 winner. Queensland are the $1.70 favourites ahead of New South Wales at $2.15, but if Ricky Stuart gets his way and NSW get 2 games next year, then that betting gap will close significantly.

Just like the AFL, the recent league results have opened up most of the futures betting, and for the first time this year Melbourne Storm look vulnerable. The Storm were terrible against Canberra last week when $1.18 chances, and while Cameron Smith was a late withdrawal, the Raiders have also had problems fielding a decent side through injuries. The Storm are at home again this week to North Queensland, and the early money has been for the Cowboys at $2.65, and particularly with 6.0 points start. Melbourne thumped North Queensland 42-16 in Townsville back in round 6, but that score-line is highly unlikely this week.

The New Zealand Warriors lose Konrad Hurrell for this week’s match against the Broncos, but regain Manu Vatuvei. Brisbane seem very short at $1.50 but punters have let us know what they think as the Broncos have been well backed at both the head to head option and conceding 5.5 points. The Warriors are $2.60, and might take some heart from the weather maps which say that there is likely to be plenty of rain in Brisbane on Friday night. That would make it a slogfest, and the result could go either way.

The Bulldogs thrashed Parramatta by 34 points in round 9, and they handicap for their rematch this week has been set at 16.5. The Bulldogs are one of the form sides of the competition, and the score-line for the Eels against Manly last week (40-24) was flattering to the Eels, so it isn’t really a surprise that there has been an early move for the Bulldogs at the minus.

Cronulla have an abysmal record in Wollongong, but while the Sharks haven’t named Paul Gallen in their match against St George Illawarra on Sunday, don’t be surprised if he is a late inclusion. This is shaping as a terrific betting game as there is money for both sides, the Dragons at $1.60 while the Sharks are $2.35. Any inkling that Gallen will play will see the Sharks price come in, and it also seems that the players who were affected by the flu in Monday night’s draw with the Roosters have fully recovered.

AFL

Round 16 of the AFL season looks one of the hardest to date even though there appear to be a couple of one sided games, and some of the results from the closely priced matches could be season defining.

North Melbourne and Carlton tackle each other on Friday night, and Carlton will be full of confidence after beating Collingwood last week. They were $4.50 on that occasion, but opened $1.60 favourite in this game. The Kangaroos would not have lost many friends with a narrow loss to the Eagles, and back at Etihad, punters think they can bounce back as there has been plenty of support for them. The Roos opened at $2.30 but a decent early move has seen that price cut to $2.12. Both sides will be desperate for a win as there is a logjam at the bottom part of the final 8. The Blues are $2.25 to make the finals with the Roos at $3.00.

Richmond had a shock loss to the Gold Coast in Cairns last year, and one punter thinks that the Tigers will turn that result around. He has wagered $10,000 on Richmond at -35.5 points (5k at $1.90, 5k at $1.80), but there is money for the Suns at the +35.5 after a narrow loss to Geelong last week. Richmond are another side in the mix for the finals, and they are also at $3.00 to make the 8.

Not many rate Geelong a chance to beat Collingwood this week, but they are getting to reasonable odds. The Cats lost Jimmy Bartel at the tribunal, and that saw their price blow from $2.30 out to $2.45. Collingwood are easy to lay at $1.55, but they have their own problems losing Wellingham at the tribunal, and a serious doubt over the availability of Dale Thomas. This should be a close one, but we like the value for Geelong.

The Eagles and Swans will meet in a top of the table clash in Perth on Sunday, and the early lead in betting activity has been for the Swans. After opening at $2.50, Sydney were backed into $2.35 in the first 48 hours of trading. Historically there is never anything between these two sides, and on form a similar result is on the cards.

Hawthorn have taken over from Collingwood as flag favourites at $3.50, with the Pies out to $4.25. Sydney are still unwanted, but have come in slightly to $8.00. There are five ‘bird’ sides in the AFL, and ironically they hold the top 5 positions on the ladder at the moment.

RUGBY UNION

Normally by now the playoff positions for the Super Rugby finals are known, but this year we won’t know the exact makeup until the completion of the last round.

All the talk in Australia this week has been about the Reds, and what has to happen for them to try and make the finals and defend their title. It seems that the Reds will need too many cards to fall their way, but one that they do have control over is whether they can beat the Waratahs and grab a bonus point. Punters think they can as the -7.5 for the Reds at the line has been the best backed rugby option this week. They Reds are $1.30 to win (Waratahs $3.50), and while the Waratahs have lost their last seven matches, when these two sides play it is game on. Of the last nine times that they have paired off in Brisbane, seven have resulted in winning margins of less than 7 points, and we can gather that the Waratahs would gain plenty by putting the Reds out of their misery in this match!

The Crusaders remain title favourites at $3.25 ahead of the Chiefs and Stormers at $3.50, but the finishing positions are going to be crucial to see who plays who next week.

MOTOGP

Dani Pedrosa broke the stranglehold that Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner have had on the motoGP races this year when he won in Germany last week, and now that he has found the winner’s podium there is money to say he can repeat that win again this week.

Pedrosa is $3.25 third pick to win the Italian GP, and he has been the one that punters have been keen on in early trading. Stoner is the $2.50 favourite, and was set to run second in Germany before he parted company with his bike on the last lap, while Lorenzo is $2.75. The market is $26.00 bar that trio, and on form it is hard to put up an argument for any other rider. Stoner (2009), Pedrosa (2010) and Lorenzo (2011) have won this race the last three years, so while all three have winning form in Italy, there isn’t much between them as the betting suggests. Lorenzo remains the $1.58 to win the Riders Championship ahead of Stoner ($2.85) and Pedrosa ($7.50).

FORMULA 1

Mark Webber became the second driver to win twice this season when victorious in the British GP last week, and now must be treated as a realistic chance of winning the Driver’s title.

Webber went into the race at $5.50 even though he had drawn well on the grid in 2, and there was plenty of parochial money for him. Fernando Alonso was the $2.75 favourite after qualifying fastest, and that pair were split by Sebastian Vettel at 4.00. The prospect of bad weather saw a lot of drivers backed, but Webber went in as Tattsbet’s worst result. Finally it seems as though the Australian public are getting behind Webber, and so they should. He has now won nine Formula 1 races, a fantastic record. Alonso is the other driver who has recorded two wins this year, and he still heads the title betting at $2.75 with Vettel at $3.00 and Webber at $5.50. On current form it isn’t out of the realms of possibility that Webber will be the main driver for Red Bull for the latter part of the season, and that would make him very hard to beat for the title.

NASCAR

The NASCAR race in Daytona last week looked more like a demolition derby as many were put out of business in the last lap, with the race eventually going to the consistent Tony Stewart, who started one of the $13.00 equal second favourites. Stewart is now $4.50 behind Jimmie Johnson ($3.50) to win the Sprint Car title.

The action moves to Loudon this week for the Lennox Industrial Tools 301, and Johnson ($7.00) and Stewart ($8.00) head the betting in a wide open race. The circuit in Loudon is one of the hardest of the ovals, and a look back through the previous winners shows up a host of different names. Ryan Newman won last year after qualifying fastest, and is $21.00 this year, while Kurt Busch (winner in 2004 and 2008) looks value at $26.00.

NETBALL

The Melbourne Vixens made their way through to the Grand Final of the ANZ Championship with a come from behind win over the Mystics last Sunday, and are now $1.45 to grab the title. It is has been a terrific effort by the Vixens after they lost Sharelle McMahon for the season, but it would be of some concern that they had to give the Mystics a healthy start. That is all history though, and now they have a week off to see if they play either the Mystics or the Magic in the Grand Final. The Magic had a big battle on their hands as well when they also came from behind to beat the Thunderbirds by 1 goal. That sets us up for a fantastic preliminary final between the Mystics and the Magic, and it could go either way. Just for the fact that they are at home, the Tattsbet opening market has the Mystics at $1.71 with the Magic at $2.10, while the Mystics are $4.50 to win the title with the Mystics at $5.00. It was noticeable last week that there was a surge in business with the games televised, and we expect more of the same this week.

GOLF

The British Open is only a week away, and while some of the big names are having this week off, the fields in the John Deere Classic and the Scottish Open have held up pretty well.

The John Deere is the US PGA event, and while it may surprise some to see Steve Stricker as short as $8.00 to win the event, past results there say that may even be over the odds! Stricker has won the last three years , and that is an outstanding record in this day and age. His winning scores of _20,-26,and -22 tell us that the course isn’t too demanding, and he really should be clear favourite. Players from the USA have dominated this event winning 15 of the last 18 events, with only Aussies John Senden (2006), Mark Hensby (2004) and Vijay Singh in 2003. Sendon is in this year’s field, and has been backed from $41.00 into $34.00, while Zac Johnson ($14.00),Tim Clark ($34.00) and Ryan Moore ($51.00) are others who have met with support. Kyle Stanley was runner-up last year and looks value at $41.00.

Luke Donald is the defending Scottish Open Champion, and he is $8.00 to make it back to back this week.

The Scottish Open was played at the Castle Stuart Golf Links last year, so there isn’t much history to go on when trying to find this year’s winner. Donald defeated Fredrik Andersson Hed ,but the event was shortened to 54 holes after bad weather. Andersson Hed hasn’t been able to recapture that form and is $201.00 this year, but a few people have taken the big odds. Of those in the betting, the best backed have been Francesco Molinari ($19.00), Phil Mickelson ($29.00),Henrik Stenson ($29.00) and Simon Dyson ($51.00), but the betting is quitter than normal for a European Tour event. Tiger Woods is the current favourite for the British Open at $7.50 ahead of Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood at $15.00.

THE GAMES

The London Games are now less than 3 weeks away, and those who have visited the Tattsbet web site would have seen that the list of Gold Medal winners is growing. Tattsbet will be offering prices on every Gold Medal (over 300), and with the Games squads now finalised in all countries, we hope to have all available by the end of next week.

As we mentioned last week, all of the talk about the Games has been dominated by Usain Bold over the past 2 weeks, and it does appear as though he may be over the injury concerns that he had. Bolt is out to $1.60 (from $1.33) in the mens 100 metres, while he is $1.50 (from $1.20) in the 200 metres. Yohan Blake defeated Bolt in both of those finals in Jamaica and is $2.75 for the 100m and $2.50 for the 200 final.

Sally Pearson is right on track to hopefully win gold in the 100 metres hurdles, and that is reflected in her price of $1.33. Sally’s main opposition appear to be Dawn Harper ($7.00) and Brigitte Foster-Hylton ($8.00). Foster-Hylton, from Jamaica, has had an incredible career, but at 37 years of age, her recent times fall well short of Sally Pearson’s.

There has been a lot of conjecture about the Aussie reps in both men’s and women’s triathlon events, and with Emma Snowshill out, Emma Moffatt and Erin Densham are both $9.00 to win gold in the womens event, while Emma Jackson is $21.00. Helen Jenkins (GBR) is the $2.25 favourite, and the Brit has been best backed along with Canada’s Paula Findlay at $4.50.

The Australians are up against it in the mens triathlon with Brad Kahlefeldt ($67.00), Courtney Atkinson ($81.00) and Brendan Sexton ($81.00) all outside chances at best. There has been some doubt about whether Kahlafeldt would be ready or not, but on form the medal should go to one of the Brownlee brothers from Great Britain. Alistair Brownlee is the $2.00 favourite after defeating his brother Jonathon in Kitzbuehel a few weeks ago, and that was his first start from tearing his achilles tendon several months ago. The pair were $2.50 each when betting first opened, but the significant move for Alistair after that win has seen Jonathon ease out to 3.00. Spain’s Javier Gomez is the other main contender in the betting at $6.50.

NOTABLE BETS

$25,000 Buddy Franklin Coleman Medal winner (Last Friday)
$10,000 Richmond -35.5
$3,000 Brisbane Lions +14.5