TattsBet News 7th June

RUGBY LEAGUE

Origin 2 is less than a week away, and although Paul Gallen has a knee problem, there is plenty of money to say that NSW will level the series next Wednesday night.

NSW touched $2.00 late last week, but have attracted 75% of the business this week, and are now in slightly to $1.95. At that price a QLD resident placed $5000 on Wednesday, which left us wondering if that particular person will tell his mates what he has done? The Maroons are out to $1.85, so there is very little in it at this stage.

The upcoming round is really quiet without the SOO players, and that is understandable. The Storm host the Tigers on Friday night, and the Tigers travel south as $1.47 favourites. The Storm will of course be missing ‘the big 3’, but they are still a good side on paper, and we are more than happy to have the premiership favourites on our side.

The Roosters will be missing Mitchell Pearce in their clash with Brisbane on Sunday, but never seem to fare too well when they are favourites. The Roosters opened at $1.70 in this game, but Broncos supporters think that they still have the personal to get the job done as they have been backed from $2.15 into $2.10. Newcastle and Canberra let in 90 points between them last week, but punters are keen on Newcastle at $1.55.

 

AFL

There are only six games of Aussie Rules on this weekend as we have the first week of split rounds.

It is probably timely as no doubt players will be looking for a rest, and some punters will be after the shock upsets last week! While there are now 9 games of AFL each week, the odds of picking all 9 winners last week worked out at nearly $1000 for each dollar outlayed, although there could not have been too many people around the country who would have tipped the card.

A month ago Carlton were premiership favourites, but to show how open it all is, the Blues are now out to $17.00, and a realistic chance of missing the final 8 ($1.90 to make it). They face a stern test at Etihad on Friday night against Geelong, and not many think they can win. After opening at 2.40, the Blues are out to $2.65, with Geelong into $1.48. One of the early big bets was $5000 for Geelong conceding 12 points start, and that is out to -13.5.

Richmond are the new pin-up side and are hot favourites to beat Fremantle on Saturday. After opening at $1.22, plenty of multi action has gone through the Tigers, and they are in marginally to $1.20. Punters have also been keen on them at -29.5, which is in to $1.85 after opening at $1.95. The Dockers cannot seem to score, and with a nice day predicted for Saturday, they could be in for a nice hiding at the open expanses of the MCG if they don’t change their game plan. Richmond are now $17.00 to win the flag, and there was one bet of $1000 for them last week at $21.00 before they defeated St Kilda.

Jobe Watson is the new $5.00 favourite with Tattsbet to win the Brownlow Medal, and while the Bombers were beaten by Melbourne, Watson would have been amongst the votes again. Scott Pendlebury was $3.25 last week, but has a break in his leg, so nobody can be sure how long he will be out for. Pendlebury has blown out to $6.00, while Gary Ablett is in from $15.00 to $9.00 after his might performance against Collingwood. Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield played in another vote getting performance against Fremantle and is right in the betting at $11.00, as is Richmond’s Trent Cotchin, now $13.00.

RUGBY UNION

The Super Rugby comp goes onto a three week break, and although there are only three rounds to go, the betting is still wide open. The Crusaders remain favourites at $3.35 ahead of the Chiefs and Stormers ($4.00), then the Reds ($8.50), the Bulls ($9.00) and the Brumbies at $11.00. It is difficult to work out where sides are going to finish, so expect that betting to change a lot in the rundown to the finals.

There are several International matches on this week, and the Wallabies will be trying to pick up the pieces against Wales after a shock loss to Scotland on Tuesday night. Australia were $1.13 in that match, and although there will be changes to the side, it was played in very heavy conditions against a weaker opponent than they will meet on Saturday night. Wales won the Six Nations and do look good value at 2.70. Punters agree as the early trading has all been for them , so expect that price to firm.

The All Blacks play Ireland early evening on Saturday, and they are $1.08 with the Irish at $7.00, while South Africa ($1.32) have named a really strong squad to take on England ($3.25) in South Africa on Sunday morning (AEST).

Tattsbet will also be covering the Pacific Nations tournament, and each of those games will be available the day prior to being played.

TENNIS

Sam Stosur goes into tonight’s French Open semi-final as a warm $1.40 favourite. Errani is trading at $2.85 and a +3.5 game handicap is available at $1.90. Stosur has been heavily backed for the title at Tattsbet all the way from an opening quote of $12 into $3. Maria Sharapova remains the red-hot fave at $2.25.

On the men’s side, clay king Rafael Nadal looks near unbeatable and his price of $1.36 for the title reflects this ahead of Friday night’s semi finals. Nadal is just $1.06 to get past David Ferrer ($9) where he will meet either Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic in the final. Tattsbet have Djokovic at $1.52, but we expect plenty of support for Federer at $2.55 to repeat last year’s semi-final win over the world number one.

FORMULA ONE

Six races down in season 2012, and there have been six individual winners to date. The big question as we head into the Canadian Grand Prix is whether or not Lewis Hamilton can chalk up his first win. Hamilton didn’t have much luck in Monaco as he was penalized grid positions are qualifying fastest, and his replacement on pole, Mark Webber, went on to win.

The Canadian race is one of the most popular races each year as the layout is partly street circuit as well as a race circuit. Tattsbet has installed Hamilton the $4.50 favourite in a wide betting affair, just ahead of Sebastian Vettel ($5.00), Fernando Alonso ($5.50), Mark Webber and Nico Roseberg, both $8.00 chances. All have met with support as has Michael Schumacher ($13.00) and Romain Grosjean ($13.00), and this race has had more early betting on it than any race this season. Jenson Button won last year and is a $10.00 chance this year, while Hamilton beat Button in 2010. Betting will be suspended while qualifying is on, and will open soon after.

SUPERBIKES

The Superbikes move to Italy this week where the races will be held at Misano.

The past couple of meets have seen individual winners of each race, and that tells us that the competition is really open. The past two years at Misano have seen Carlos Checa win both races in 2011, and Max Biaggi win both on 2010. Checa won the first race in Salt Lake City a couple of weeks ago, while Italian Marco Melandri won the second. Melandri has ridden himself in to some pretty good form, and will go into Misano as one of the key chances. Because of his record here, Checa will be the short priced favourite, but both Biaggi and Melandri look capable of winning as well.

GOLF

Rory McIlroy has missed the cut at his last three starts, and with the US Open only a week away, McIlroy will be looking to find some form in the St Jude Classic this week. The Irishman is the defending US Open champion, and is $11.00 equal favourite with Zach Johnson to win the St Jude. Oddly enough, McIlroy has been best backed this week even though his lead up form is poor. Others to meet with support have been Graeme McDowell ($23.00), David Toms ($23.00), Robert Karlsson ($31.00) and Padraig Harrington ($34.00), but there have been a host of players backed, just not for huge amounts. Toms might be hard to beat here as he is a two time winner (2003, 2004) and was runner up in 2005 and 2009, really good form for this.

We said last week that Tiger Woods had been backed to win The Memorial, and he was another who had previous form at an event who went on to win. Now Tiger is back in the winners list, punters want to be on him to win the Open next week. Tattsbet put Tiger up at $6.00 after that win, and he was quickly backed into $5.50. Luke Donald and Lee Westwood occupy the second line of betting at $14.00, while Adam Scott is the shortest Aussie at $26.00.

CRICKET

The Third test between England and the West Indies is due to get under way on Thursday night, and although England has already wrapped the series up, there has been a lot of interest in this game. There is a strong chance that rain will interfere in the early days of this test, and that has seen the price for a draw shorten dramatically. The draw was at $2.75 last week, but is now in to $1.43, with the mail out that most of the first day could be lost to rain. England have drifted from $1.75 out to $3.25, while the West Indies are at $13.00. The way the West Indies play there appears to be a lot of value in risking the draw at the short quote, and that is what we will be doing. Prices will be updated at the end of each days play.

SOCCER

Germany and Spain go into round one of Euro 2012 as equal favourites at $4.00 ahead of the Netherlands ($6.00) and France ($10.00). Although England and Italy have their share of problems both on and off the field, we also see constant money for them at $12.00 and $13.00 respectively.

A reminder that Tattsbet will be open 24/7 to cover Euro 2012, there will be live betting throughout each match.

RACING

The barrier draw, as well as a prospect of improving weather, has seen massive interest in Saturday’s Stradbroke Handicap. After the barrier draw Sea Siren was installed as the $4.00 favourite, and that was where the first bet went-$2000 at that price. She has been well backed since then, so punters have not been put off by the weight she will have to carry. Local hero Buffering has drawn out near the car park, but he is such a popular horse that he has attracted most bets post barrier draw even though he is out to $8.00. One of those bets was $1000 each way, but he is really going to have his work cut out from the horror draw. Celtic Dance ploughed through the mud last week, and has been backed to win again with one bet of $1000 at $35.00, while roughies Sistine Angel ($26.00) and Happy Zero ($61.00) have each attracted decent bets of $600 each way.The Tattsbet racing analysts think that Sea Siren is definitely the one to beat, but the main danger is Wealth Princess ($8.50) who failed to handle the heavy conditions last week. A better track this week should see her right in the finish.

Exciting youngster Sizzling is $1.85 to win the T.J.Smith Plate, and while there has been some money for him, the push has been for Boban, in a fraction from $5.50 to $5.00.

The Peter Moody trained pair of Brambles ($3.50) and Vatuvei ($5.00) dominate the betting along with Zabeelionaire ($5.50), but there are reasons why all three can be beaten. Brambles got away with an easy lead when he won last start, and it is hard to see the same thing happening again here. Vatuvei’s best form appears to be on very wet tracks, and unless that happens we are prepared to risk him, while Zabeelionaire hasn’t raced since he won the South Australian Derby. There are numerous chances in the race, so nothing would surprise.