TattsBet News 21st June

RUGBY LEAGUE

Finding winners in the NRL has been no easy task, and there are some terrific games in the upcoming round. Five of the opening favourites were all beaten at their last start, but as we know from the results so far this year, previous form counts for nothing.

Brisbane host Souths on Friday night, and while there is a doubt over whether Ben Hannant will be right or not, punters have shown that they think this will be a win to Brisbane. Souths have been one of the big improvers recently, but all of the money has been for a Broncos win at $1.44. In the other Friday night game, the Dragons are also a warm favourite at $1.50 to beat the Titans. The Dragons last win was nearly a month ago when they scrambled home 14-12 over Parramatta, while the Titans have finally found a winning formula. Greg Bird is a big out for the Titans, and for that reason they have been installed at $2.60 with the Dragons at $1.50.

Melbourne Storm had one of their better wins against Manly on Monday night, but this week they take on the Bulldogs, and they are another side that have run into some very good form. This game will be played in Mackay on Sunday afternoon, and it is difficult to say which side will be suited to the probable humid conditions. The Storm will still be without Billy Slater, and that is why they are $1.65. Early trading has been interesting with bets coming for both sides, but the amounts have been small. It looks like punters see it the same was as us, a very, very difficult game to predict.

Injuries will play a key part of Origin 3, and there are several players who have a large question mark hanging over their heads. Betting opened at $1.60 Queensland and $2.35 New South Wales as soon as game 2 finished, and the prices remain that way. After initially seeing money for NSW, that has all dried up, and this week the betting pendulum has swung the other way, led up by a bet of $3000 for QLD at the $1.60.

 

AUSSIE RULES

All six AFL favourites won last week, and while that was the first time all favs had won this season, there were plenty out there who helped themselves to the $3.50 on that happening.

It does get a whole lot harder this week. There are still only 6 matches, but the opening quote for all favs to win was a shade over $10.00, and that says we face a tough round. Having said that, there has been unprecedented interest in nearly every game, with Essendon being the biggest early ‘go’ of the round. The Bombers opened at $2.05 against Fremantle ($1.75), but in the first 48 hours of betting the roles had been reversed. Essendon’s form in WA has been far from good, but Fremantle have lost big man Aaron Sandilands for a couple of months. The biggest early bet for the Bombers was $6600 at $1.85 on the way in, but the ratio of bets for them outnumbers Fremantle 3-1.

GWS have far outweighed most expectations this year by already recording a win, but there has been a good push for them to double that score against Melbourne on Sunday. The GWS opened at $3.60 and in early trading that price crashed into $3.30, and the line of +22.5 has also met with good support including one bet of $6600. Melbourne had that win over Essendon, and that form line is good enough to win here, but apart from that their form has been woeful. Punters are finding it hard to take the $1.33!

Collingwood get a few stars back this week, and while they seem priced up to their very best at $1.45, punters are happy to take that against the Eagles. They have been very popular at the head to head price, particularly through multis, but not so much at the handicap of -15.5. It is a similar scenario in the last game of the round where Adelaide have already been $1.45 into $1.42 to beat North Melbourne, but there hasn’t been too many eager to take -17.5 for the Crows. We see this as a real danger game for Adelaide as the Kangaroos do play their best football under the roof at Etihad.



RUGBY UNION

Australia got out of jail against Wales last week, and while the Wallabies wrapped up the series with that last second win, there is really good interest in the final test this week.

It is worth pointing out that this is an afternoon game with a 3pm start in Sydney, and many think that the warmer day conditions will suit the Wallabies. Kurtley Beale will be back to bolster the side, but they still seem to be very short at $1.48, with Wales at $2.60. The money says that Australia will win though as they have been coupled up with New Zealand and South Africa in the other two games being covered. New Zealand ($1.03) were also fortunate to score a last gasp win over Ireland last week, and while they have been forced to make several changes this week, they still go in as hot $1.09 chances, or concede 16.5 points on the line. South Africa have also wrapped up their series against England, but similar to New Zealand, have made key changes to the side this week. They seem poor value at $1.22, with England getting a very handy 9.5 points start on the line.

 

SOCCER

Euro 2012 is now at the quarter final stage, and there has been a big spike in betting activity. The game that has captured the most interest is the last quarter final between England and Italy. Both sides came into the tournament under plenty of pressure, but both are still there, and ironically have been the best backed sides to take out the final. Germany are the $3.00 favourites ahead of Spain at $3.50, then Portugal at $6.50, but we continue to see money for Italy (now $8.00) and England at $9.00. Their match on Monday morning has all look of a draw ($2.90) written all over it, but the Tattsbet clients have given the stalemate a wide berth with money split evenly between Italy ($2.70) and England ($2.75). Don’t forget there is live betting on all of the Euro 2012 matches.

 

GOLF

The win by Webb Simpson in the US Open didn’t come as a complete surprise to one punter who placed $200 on Simpson at $61.00 before the event started, but he certainly had to work to win his bet. For most of the last round Jim Furyk and Graham McDowell held control of the betting, but the conditions got the better of both. The experts did say before the first round that the winner would be lucky to break par, and that prediction proved spot on when Simpson posted +1.

While some of the name players will be missing this week, two handy fields have been assembled on both the European and US Tours.

In the US, Matt Kuchar and Hunter Mahan are $15.00 equal favs to win the Travelers Championship, ahead of Zach Johnson and Webb Simpson at $18.00. Normally after a win in a Major, punters ignore the winners at their next start, but that is not the case with Simpson as he is easily the worst result with Tattsbet. Money has also come for Mahan, Bubba Watson ($21.00), Ryan Moore ($26.00) and Fredrik Jacobson ($26.00). Jacobson won this event last year after playing well in the US Open, Bubba Watson won in 2010, and Mahan won back in 2007, so punters have been keen to back those with a good record here.

The BMW International Open is the European Tour event, and it will be held on the outskirts of Munich in Germany. Being a German, as well as a previous winner (2008), Martin Kaymer has been well backed, firming from $9.00 into $7.50. Spaniard Sergio Garcia is second favourite at $12.00, and he did finish second here last year after a marathon 5 hole playoff. The victor on that occasion was Pablo Larazabal, who is a $41.00 chance this year, but we have only taken a handful of small bets for him at the big odds. Others who have met with support include Ross Fisher ($16.00), Henrick Stenson ($26.00) and Alvaro Quiros ($34.00). Veteran Thomas Bjorn is a two-time winner of the BMW and has been kept safe in the market at $31.00.

 

NASCAR

Aussie Marcos Ambrose is the Tattsbet $3.75 favourite to win the Save Mart 350 in Sonama, California this week.

Ambrose qualified fastest in Michigan last week before finishing down the track, but this week’s event is a road race, and that suits him down to the ground. He was placed here in 2009, but there are a few others in the betting who will also be at home on this circuit. Jeff Gordon ($7.00) has been in good form recently, but more importantly is a five time winner as well as being runner up last year. He definitely looks hardest to beat. Kurt Busch ($26.00) won last year, and title favourite Jimmy Johnson ($9.00) won back in 2010, and both have been in good form as well. The race will start at 5am (AEST) on Monday morning.

 

RALLY

It is no surprise to see Frenchman Sebastien Loeb a $1.70 chance to win the Rally of New Zealand, and all the form points towards him chalking up another win. Loeb has dominated the sport of recent times, and has won four of the six rally’s held so far this year. New Zealand only get a rally every couple of years, and Loeb won this one back in 2008, so the travel won’t be an issue. When it was last held in 2010, Finland’s Jari-Matti Latvala won, and he second elect at $3.25, while another Finn, Mikko Hirvonen is on the third line of betting at $6.00. Hirvonen is running second on the Championship table behind Loeb, and like Loeb has failed only once to be amongst the points. Latvala on the other hand has missed a rally, as well as failing to grab points on 2 occasions. He is capable of winning, but has always had trouble with consistency.

 

FORMULA ONE

After seven individual winners in Formula 1 this season, it is long odds on that the European GP this week will provide the season’s first multiple winner.

Valencia will host the European GP, and it has been a terrific race for Sebastien Vettel who has won it the last two years. Lewis Hamilton finished second on both occasions, and was also second to Felipe Massa back in 2009. It would be fair to say that Vettel hasn’t been in that sort of form this season, and for that reason he is second pick at $4.50 behind Hamilton who is our $3.50 favourite. Fernando Alonso shares the second line of betting at $4.50, then it is $11.00 for Nico Roseberg, $13.00 for Mark Webber, Kimi Raikkonen, Romain Grosjean and Jenson Button. The early money has been for Vettel, Webber and Grosjean, with the latter finishing second to Hamilton in Canada a fortnight ago. With the season being as open as it is we have noticed a big surge in interest as far as betting is concerned, and the bets are always spread across several drivers. Hamilton is now the $2.50 favourite to win the title ahead of Vettel ($3.75) and Alonso ($4.00), but we continue to get bets for Mark Webber who is now out to $13.00.

 

RACING

Frankel and Black Caviar have dominated the racing headlines this week, and while the might mare will not be in action until Saturday night, we do have a terrific meeting at Eagle Farm on Saturday, with the Tatts Tiara being the feature event.

The barrier draw has made what was already a difficult race all that much harder, and Victorians Soft Sand ($4.50) and Shopaholic ($5.00) head up the betting. Soft Sands has fantastic form in her home state, but hasn’t raced for a month, has drawn wide, and there is a doubt whether the race will be run to suit. Mid Summer Music won the Stradbroke at bolters odds, but is another not suited by the wide draw, or the prospect of a much better track than she got last start. The Peter Moody trained mare opened at $7.50, and as she is trained by the great man will have a heap of admirers, but she will have her work cut out. Red Tracer is well in commission at $6.00, and if she can handle the better tracks (won on heavy last start), then she looks likely to get a good run and prove hard to beat. The Tattsbet racing analysts are expecting a forward showing from Miss Keepsake and Skyerush (both $26.00), so they may be worth throwing into the multiples.

The Diamond Jubilee final field will be known on Thursday night, and the fixed odds will be available shortly after. Judging by the levels of interest in Frankel and So You Think early in the week, we are expecting an avalanche of support for Black Caviar even though she will be around the $1.20 mark.