TattsBet News 14th June

RUGBY LEAGUE

The Origin series is alive after the 16-12 win by NSW in Sydney, and with a couple of key injuries to the QLD side, perhaps NSW might be able to finally win a series.

The Blues went into Game 2 as equal favourites at $1.92. It was a massive betting game with the biggest bet being a $50,000 bet on Queensland at $1.93. Brett Stewart was unwanted at $15.00 to score the first try, but many thought Greg Bird would be the Man of the Match. Bird firmed from an opening $21.00 to a closing $11.00, and although the biggest bet was only $250 at $13.00, he did attract the most bets of the NSW players.

NSW were backed from $4.00 into $3.30 to win the series in the lead up to Game 2, and those punters would be on very good terms with themselves now. The Blues showed enough in both games to suggest that they will be hard to beat in the third game even though it will be in Brisbane, and there is a major doubt over the availability of Billy Slater. Immediately after the game, Tattsbet opened QLD favs at $1.60 with NSW at $2.35, but that is now on hold pending the news on Slater.

Wednesday’s match was brutal to say the least, and many of the players will be in doubt for the weekend. Apart from the obvious injuries, all did not seem well with Jonathon Thurston, so it will be interesting to see if he lines up on Friday night. A depleted Brisbane side will travel north and be the outsiders at around $2.25, but they showed last week that they can plug holes. The other Friday night game has seen money for the Dragons to beat the Bulldogs. The Dragons opened at $2.30 and were cut to $2.25, the bets haven’t been big, but consistent.

The betting on the Cronulla vs Warriors game hinges on Paul Gallen. Prior to Origin, Cronulla were backed from $2.15 into $2.10, but Gallen looked in all sorts of bother with his knee during the game, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was ruled out. That would see the Sharks go for a major drift in the betting, and while they have won without Gallen this year, a full strength Warriors side will be hard to beat.

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AFL

Even though this round of AFL only contains 6 games, there will be a Thursday night match, and all eyes will be on Carlton to see if they can regain some form.

West Coast stumbled against Brisbane, but return home, while Carlton are in free-fall at the moment. There has been some interest in the Blues who have firmed from $4.15 to $3.85, but there is a lot of multi action going through the Eagles at $1.26. Punters have been a little apprehensive to take the -24.5 for the Eagles, so maybe we will get a close contest.

Adelaide has been the side to attract most attention in early betting in their game against St Kilda on Friday night. One of the early bets was $3000 on the Crows at $1.45, but we have also seen money for the Saints at $2.75.

GWS have been a good side to those who take the big starts as they have only failed to cover twice this season, and once again they are in receipt of a big start against Richmond. The GWS get 57.5 at $1.90, and that is where the early money has gone. Another side getting a big start is Brisbane against Hawthorn. The Lions ran into form against the Eagles, and the $48.5 start does seem pretty generous if they can take some of that form to Melbourne. The Hawks had a solid victory over Port Adelaide and that has seen them zoom back in to second picks for the flag at $4.75. Collingwood are $3.50 favourites, but surprisingly we never seem to get any money for them, while punters keep chipping away at the $7.00 for the Crows. Sydney have been the form side of the competition, but they are another who have been ignored by punters, still an $11.00 chance with Tattsbet.

GOLF

Tiger Woods will go into the US Open as favourite at $8.00, but while there has been plenty to say that he can add another Major to his list of achievements, there are plenty out there who think he can be beaten.

After his win a couple of weeks ago, Tiger got into $6.50 for the Open, but this week he has eased out as a result of a host of other players attracting support. Lee Westwood is second pick at $12.00 ahead of Luke Donald ($13.00), Rory McIlroy ($16.00) and Phil Mickelson ($23.00). Statistics go a long way in formulating golf markets, and there are a few interesting ones attached to the US Open. Only once in the past 10 years has the winner played the previous week, and that was Geoff Ogilvy in 2006. That would seem to suggest that both McIlroy and St Jude winner Dustin Johnson, as well as Lee Westwood (won in Sweden) would be risky conveyances this week, but both are amongst our biggest losers. McIlroy is the defending champion, and while he did so some improvement last week, his previous form was poor.

Phil Mickelson has been runner-up in this event five times, so nobody could begrudge him a win, however he has been pretty well ignored at $23.00 as has Jim Furyk at $34.00. Furyk is a past winner, has been second on two occasions, and more importantly his recent form has been good. Adam Scott is the shortest of the Australian contingent at $41.00, just ahead of Jason Day and Geoff Ogilvy, both at $51.00. Scott is $3.25 to be ‘Top Aussie’ ahead of Day at $4.00 and Ogilvy at $4.75, with Ogilvy being the one to attract most bets in that option.

BASKETBALL

After losing Game 1 of the NBA finals series, Miami have now eased out to $2.85 to win the title. Oakland went through the season proper being ignored by punters, and it took until this week to take a bet in excess of $500 on them to win the title, and that was $2000 at 1.62. Miami on the other hand spent most of the season as favourites and there have been several big bets taken for them including $6000 at $3.25 and the same bet at $2.50.

Game 2 will again be in Oklahoma on Friday morning Australian time, and Miami have a lot of work to do to avenge the 11 point defeat in the first game. Although Miami were 5 point underdogs in that game, there was huge support for them both to win and cover the line, they are clearly one of the most popular sides in any sport with Aussie punters. Betting for Friday’s game is similar to the first, and don’t forget there is live betting with Tattsbet throughout.

V8’S

The Top End will host the V8’s this weekend with one race on Saturday and the second on Sunday. The Hidden Valley circuit in Darwin can be very taxing, and the different distances (race 1 of 42 laps, 69 laps for race 2) can make it even more intriguing. As we know, the Fords have had the better of Holdens this season, and the betting suggests the same should happen in Darwin. Race 1 favourite is Mark Winterbottom ($3.25) ahead of Will Davison ($3.50), with Holden providing the next two in the market, Jamie Whincup at $5.00 and Craig Lowndes at $8.00. Whincup has had an ordinary season by his standards, and was unplaced in both races here last year after a win and a second in 2010. There has been money for him at $5.00, but nothing like what we have seen in the past. Rick Kelly and Shane Van Gisbergen won here last year, and there has been a sprinkling of support for both at $41.00 and $13.00 respectively.

FORMULA ONE

Lewis Hamilton finally won a race this season when victorious in the European GP, and that made it seven different winners from the seven races held this year.

Hamilton has now taken the lead in the Drivers’ Championship on 86 points, and his price to win has been slashed to $2.50. Sebastian Vettel is second pick at $3.75 (85 points) ahead of Fernando Alonso at $4.00 (86 points). Mark Webber finished 7th last week, and although he is only 9 points behind Hamilton, Webber’s title price has blown out to $13.00.

The European GP is next on the calendar, but is on the weekend after next. In opening betting, Hamilton is the $3.50 favourite ahead of Vettel and Alonso (both $4.50), with the rest being $11.00 or better.

MOTOR BIKES

The British motoGP will be held at Silverstone for the third year in a row this week, and as has been the case all season, Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner have a stranglehold on the betting. Lorenzo is the $2.25 favourite with Tattsbet ahead of Stoner ($2.50), while Dani Pedrosa ($4.75) is the only other rider under $19.00. Pedrosa is always the third pick in opening betting markets, but Australian punters continue to ignore him, preferring one of the two favourites. Pedrosa was runner-up to Lorenzo in Catalunya two weeks ago, but was well held. Stoner finished fourth in that race, but he did win on this course last year after finishing 5th in 2010. Lorenzo failed to finish in 2011 after winning in 2010, while Pedrosa has no form of note around Silverstone. One rider who could be a big improver this week is Andrea Dovizioso who has finished second the last two years after winning in 2209, but that particular race was held at Donington. Still, his form in the UK warrants him having a realistic chance at 19.00!