TattsBet News 3rd May

AFL

The two versions of Josh Kennedy have made the news in AFL betting this week, both for extremely different reasons.

The Swans Josh Kennedy is now the $8.00 second favourite to win the Brownlow Medal behind Scott Pendlebury ($7.00), and Kennedy is the one player that has drawn the most bets this week. Looking back over his price movements makes interesting reading as he opened at $501.00 in January, was $201.00 before round one, and has continued to come down as each round has finished. There is one punter out there who is sitting pretty with a $20 each way bet at 501.00, so a potential $12,500 win if the Swan’s star can win the medal.

The Eagles Josh Kennedy has been ruled out for 3 months through injury, and that is going to put a lot of pressure on their forward line. They were down on troops anyway, and that has seen their flag odds blow from $4.75 out to $5.75 since the news got out. The Eagles do have depth, and they are going to need it, but there has been really good money for the Kangaroos against them this week. They have firmed from $5.00 into $4.20, and the line is now +24.5 after one person placed $13,000 on them with 26.5 points start.

There are a lot of short priced favourites this week, with the only game having close betting being the Port v Richmond clash. In the other 8 games, the best price for any favourite is only $1.28, and a multi of all 8 favs works out to $3.00, that is as short as we have ever seen! If you throw in Richmond to beat Port the multi works out to a little over $5.00, so that does throw some respectability into the price, but can the Tigers do it? They were valiant in defeat (again) last week, but we think Port will be mighty hard to beat at home.

RUGBY LEAGUE

The favourites ran pretty straight last week in the NRL, but round 9 looks really tough on paper.

The Cowboys were held scoreless by Souths in the first half last week, but then went close to winning. They are at home this week against the Dragons, and while the Dragons got up against the Roosters on ANZAC Day, they were very poor for the first 60 minutes. This is a big game for both sides, particularly the Cowboys who will be looking to chalk up some wins before the Origin series gets under way. The Cowboys have opened at $1.65, with the Dragons at $2.25.

The Broncos travel to New Zealand to play the Warriors on Saturday night, and while Brisbane did beat the Titans easily last week, the match was played in heavy conditions. This is a game that could really go either way, but Broncos fans think their side will be winning judging by the early betting trends. Brisbane opened at $1.70 and were quickly backed into $1.65, but the Warriors did enough against Melbourne last week to suggest that they will be very hard to beat at home.

Cronulla just keep rolling along, and have now racked up six wins in a row. They will be going for win number seven on Monday night against Souths, and this is shaping as the best betting game of the round. The Sharks are slight favs at $1.85, but the bets have been split between the two in the first 24 hours of trading.

NSW have been dealt several blows in the past 7 days with several of their Origin players either out or in doubt. That has seen the Marrons firm from $1.65 into $1.55, and the Blues have drifted out to $2.45.

SUPER RUGBY

The Brumbies have been the surprise packet in the Australian Conference, and a win this week over the Waratahs will nearly cement the top spot for them. The biggest problem facing the Brumbies this week is that they are returning from South Africa, and for that reason they were installed as $1.90 equal favs with the Waratahs. The early betting has been slanted the way of the Brumbies and they have firmed in to $1.87.

The Reds scored an upset win over the Blues last week, but everybody has been able to beat the Blues this season!. It was a win though, and that should give them a little bit of confidence going in to the big clash with the Crusaders this week. Winning in Christchurch is no easy feat, and the Crusaders are hot favourites at $1.19 with the Reds at $4.65. They are receiving a healthy 11 points start, and although the early money has been for the Crusaders at -11, we think that the Reds can do enough to stay inside that line.

SUPER BIKES

Sylvain Guintoli and Jonathon Rea were the two race winners in Assen a couple of weeks ago, and that broke the sequence of wins by veterans Carlos Checa and Max Biaggi. That has opened up the Championship betting with Checa out slightly to $2.10, Biaggi at $2.50, then Tom Sykes ($5.50) and Rea at $9.00.

Monza, Italy, will host the Superbikes this week, and looking at the results so far this season as well as the winners at Monza the last couple of years, then we should have an interesting weekend. Checa will go into race 1 as favourite ahead of Biaggi and Rea, and all three have form at this track. Last year Rea won race 1 and then Checa won race 2, and Biaggi won both events in 2010. A good place on the grid is crucial at Monza, so keep an eye on the qualifying sessions to see if Checa or Biaggi can get back into form.

MOTO GP

Portugal will host the motoGP this week, and while Casey Stoner bounced back with a win in Spain last week, it is hard to know if he can maintain that form. Stoner has had major issues with his arm and the circulation in it for two seasons now, it cost him the race in Qatar, and it nearly did again last week. Casey was a $4.50 pop to win last week, but is $2.30 in Portugal, narrowly ahead of Jorge Lorenzo ($2.50) and Dani Pedrosa ($4.50). Lorenzo was the fastest qualifier last week but finished second in the actual race, but he has a terrific record at this venue having won in 2009 and 2010, and was then runner up to Pedrosa last year. With all of the issues facing Casey Stoner, Lorenzo seems a much safer bet.

V8’S

The V8’s will have three races in Perth this week, one on Saturday and two on Sunday. Jamie Whincup dominated this series last year winning the first and third races, and in between these was second to Jason Bright. The big difference this year is that the Ford’s have made some serious inroads into Whincup’s dominance as evidenced by the wins of Will Davison and Mark Winterbottom in New Zealand. Whincup shares Championship favouritism now with Davison at $3.00, but Winterbottom is breathing down their necks at $4.00, even though he is nearly 200 points behind Whincup. That trio will head the betting in Perth, and just a reminder that the markets close each day while the practise/qualifying sessions are held.

GOLF

Most of the big names surface again this week in the Wells Fargo Championship, and all will be keen to find some form ahead of the Players Championship which will be on next week.

Tiger Woods ($10.00) is pressing Rory McIlroy ($9.00) for favouritism, and punters thing that Tiger can get the job done. He is a previous winner here, but did miss the cut at his last start here. Phil Mickelson has met with good support ($13.00 into $12.00), but while he has always performed well around this course, he remains winless from 8 attempts. Lee Westwood ($15.00) and Hunter Mahan ($21.00) are next in line, but betting on each has been relatively quiet, whereas Jim Fury ($26.00-$23.00), Keegan Bradley ($34.00) and local hope Webb Simpson ($34.00) have met with a lot of support, particularly with each way punters. There are several Australians in the field, and the shortest of those is Jason Day ($51.00) who is returning from an ankle injury.

The European Tour event this week is the Open de Espana which will be held in Seville.The betting is wide open on this event with Nicolas Colsaerts and Francesco Molinari at $17.00 ahead of Matteo Manassero at $23.00. The latter two of that trio have been backed in the early trading, along with Alvaro Quiros ($26.00) and Paul Lawrie ($29.00), while Spanish veteran Miguel Angel Jiminez is also in commission at $26.00.

NETBALL

The Melbourne Vixens remain the only undefeated team in the ANZ Championship, but they did have some worrying moments before beating the Firebirds last week. Trailing by as many as 8 points, the Vixens wore down the reigning titleholders to win 52-51. That has seen the title price for the Vixens cut to $2.50, and we are still amazed that nobody took the $9.00 before game 1. All and sundry wrote them off once Sharelle McMahon ruled herself out for the season, and while they have been the big improvers, what do we do with the Firebirds and the Magic? They were $2.25 and $5.00 respectively in pre-season betting, but both have won only one game, and both of those wins were against poor opposition. The Firebirds are now $7.00 and the Magic have blown way out to $26.00.

NOTABLE BETS

$13,000 at $1.90 North Melbourne +26.5 v West Coast AFL Rnd 6 (now +24.5 points)
$8,000 at $1.80 Wests Tigers -8.5 v Gold Coast NRL Rnd 9 (now -10.0 points)