TattsBet News 24th May

RUGBY LEAGUE

There weren’t too many shining moments for Akuila Uate in the first State of Origin match, but he did score the first try, and that was a good result for Tattsbet. Uate was the shortest of the Blues players at $11.00, and while there was one bet of $500 at that quote, punters preferred the ‘big three’ of Queensland, Inglis,Slater and Boyd. The margin of 8 points in favour of Queensland was well backed from $17.00 into $13.00, and there was a very big list of winning bets under Queensland to win 1-12 at $2.75. Man of the Match went to Nate Myles who was a $51.00 chance, and while there were a few small bets on Myles, those that took the $67.00 for Brent Tate can probably feel a little unlucky.

The second match will be in Sydney, and with the Blues putting up a decent show in Melbourne, you would expect them to be hard to beat at home. Queensland will be slight favourites in game 2, and are currently $1.28 to win the series. The Blues are at $3.70, and they did meet with a lot of support before game 1, including one bet of $4000 at 2.75.

So now we are faced with the NRL games this week where many question marks hover most games with players backing up. There are some terrific games on, but betting will be quiet until the starting line-ups are known. Brisbane have left nearly all of their Origin players out of Friday’s clash with Melbourne, and that will see them go in as lengthy outsiders at around the $2.85 mark.

The Tigers notched up another close win over the Warriors last week, and the key to their match against the Cowboys this week will be whether Jonathon Thurston and company back up. The betting has opened with the Tigers at $1.60 and the Cowboys at $2.35, but if all of the SOO players back up for the Cowboys, the prices will be a lot closer together.

AFL

The Adelaide Crows are the new pin-up side with punters, and the way they are going, who can argue with that? Prior to last week’s bit win over Carlton, one Crows fan placed $5000 on them to win the flag at $13.00, and that price has been slashed to $7.00. Adelaide play at home this week, and have been backed from an opening $1.57 (one bet of $10,000) into $1.50 to beat Collingwood. The Pies will be without Dane Swan, and that is going to make it difficult. If the Crows win, and win easily, it is feasible that they will be pushing Hawthorn for flag favouritism.

The local derby in Perth has been the good betting game so far, and there are many who think Fremantle can beat the Eagles. The Dockers opened at $3.25, and that price remains, with the Eagles at $1.35.

Sydney travel to Melbourne to play St Kilda, and after opening at $1.90 apiece, the Swans have moved into outright favouritism at $1.86.

Scott Pendlebury was the catalyst behind Collingwood’s win over Geelong last week, and he is now $4.50 Brownlow favourite. There have been a lot of big movers over the past few weeks, including Jobe Watson ($15.00-$8.00), Scott Thompson ($26.00-$9.00), Paddy Dangerfield ($34.00-$13.00) and Brett Stanton ($26.00-$13.00). All would have been gathering votes, and none have been missed by punters either. As mentioned before, Dangerfield was backed to win close to $200,000 with Tattsbet at $126.00 before the season started, and Thompson has been backed to win nearly $20,000 this week alone. But betting on Brownlow favourites can be fraught with danger. Marc Murphy was a $9.00 pop last week, but now that he will be sidelined for a couple of months, the star Carlton mid fielder is out to 100/1.

INDY CARS

Ryan Briscoe will be the first Australian ever to start the Indy 500 from pole position, and with his Team Penkse Aussie mate Will Power starting from 5 on the grid, there must be a strong chance that first prize will be heading Down Under.

Team Penske have won 15 Indy 500’s, and 5 out of the last 11, and in the first year of the new engine formula, Penske have taken all the pole positions and all the wins in the four races so far this year. That augurs well for the chances of both, and naturally they are to the fore in betting. Briscoe is the $5.00 favourite at Tattsbet, while Power is $7.00 third elect. Splitting the pair is the third Team Penske driver, Helio Castroneves ($6.00), who has won the Indy 500 three times before. To prove what an all-rounder Castroneves is, he also won the first US series of Dancing With The Stars, so he is multi-talented!

Those three drivers have dominated the betting so far, but there has been a little bit of support for ex Formula 1 driver Rubens Barrichello at $41.00.

RUGBY

There are a couple of good battles coming up in Super Rugby this week, none more so than the Brumbies v the Reds. The Brumbies can nearly wrap up the Australian Conference with a win, while the Reds need to keep winning to finish in the top 6. The ACT hasn’t been a happy place for the Reds, but they did win their last start there in 2011 after 9 losses in a row. There is little in the betting with the Brumbies holding sway narrowly at $1.85 with the Reds at $1.95.

The Sharks host the Stormers on Sunday morning, and while the Stormers have beaten the Sharks at their last three meetings, they head to Durban as slight $2.00 underdogs. The Sharks are $1.80, and that is where the early money has gone. This game has all the ear markings of a close, low scoring affair, and of the last 8 games between these two sides in Durban, six have been decided by 7 points or less. The Stormers are currently $3.50 second picks to win the title behind the Crusaders ($3.35), just ahead of the Chiefs at $5.00, but there could be some significant moves in the betting after this weekend’s matches.

TENNIS

The French Open gets under way next week, and having seen several recent tournaments played on clay, punters should have an accurate formline to follow coming into it.

Rafael Nadal defeated Novak Djokovic in Rome on Monday, and that has seen Nadal firm from $1.90 into $1.80 to win the men’s final. Djokovic remains second elect at $3.00, and apart from those two, Roger Federer is the one who most thing can cause an upset. Federer was $12.00 a couple of weeks ago, but us now solid at $9.00. There have been a few outsiders who have met with support, namely Tomas Berdych ($67-$41), John Isner ($126-$67) and Fernando Verdasco ($151-$126), all of whom have good form on clay, but it is hard to go past Nadal on his favourite surface.

The women’s title is wide open, and has become even more so with favourite Serena Williams withdrawing from Rome with a niggling back injury. Williams is the current $3.30 favourite ahead of Victoria Azarenka ($4.75) and Maria Sharapova ($6.25). All three have had support, but nothing like what you would expect to see, with punters going wide to try and find the winner. Caroline Wozniacki ($29.00), Angelique Kerber ($29.00) and Mona Barthel ($41.00) are some of the more popular players at longer odds, particularly Barthel. The German would be known to Aussie tennis fans as she won in Hobart as a lead-up to the Australian Open, and was 200/1 to win the French six weeks ago. Her recent form is good, and this event has a knack of catapulting the careers of little known players, so she may be one to keep an eye out for.

FORMULA ONE

There is little doubt that the most scenic course on the F1 calendar is the Monaco GP, and it will be held this weekend. The tight Monte Carlo circuit makes it near on impossible to pass, so a lot more emphasis is placed on those who qualify fastest leading into the race. We normally see a wider spread of money for drivers before those sessions as punters try and predict who will be at the front of the grid, and that is the case this year. So far this season there have been five individual winners, and that just enforces the fact that the Championship is very open. Lewis Hamilton was quickest in Spain but was banished to the back of the grid, so he has been installed as the $3.85 favourite with Tattsbet.Ironically this event hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Hamilton, and there has been more money for Sebastien Vettel ($5.00) and Fernando Alonso ($5.50) than the favourite. Vettel won last year, but the Red Bulls haven’t really been at their best this season. The Lotus duo of Kimi Raikkonen ($6.50) and Romain Grosjean ($9.00) are both expected to be hard to beat along with Mark Webber. Webber is currently $13.00, but a look back through his form suggests that he will be hard to beat as he has finished fourth at three of his last four attempts in Monaco, and of course won in 2010.

SUPERBIKES

Two rounds into the 2012 Superbike season it appeared as though either Carlos Checa or Max Biaggi had the title at their mercy, but the whole competition has opened up now with any one of half a dozen riders a chance to win the title. Biaggi hangs on to a narrow 5 point lead and is $3.25 equal favourite with Checa (23 points behind), but Tom Sykes (5 behind) and Jonathon Rea (20 behind) get their chance to make some inroads into that lead this week. Sykes is the third pick now at $3.75 with Rea at $8.00, but Marco Melandri ($11.00) and Leon Haslam ($11.00) are also in the mix. Melandri won the first race at Donington a fortnight ago with the other going to Rea, so that will ensure a competitive set of races this week in Salt Lake City. This will be the fourth running of the superbikes in Salt Lake City, and it is worth noting that all three previous meets here have produced the same winner of both races, Checa in 2011, Biaggi in 2010 and Ben Spies in 2009. Betting for these races will open on Friday morning.

GOLF

The Crowne Plaza invitational is the PGA Tour event this week, and although it is $15.00 the field, there are a couple who have been targeted by punters.

Zac Johnson is the Tattsbet favourite at $15.00, and has been the best backed player after opening at $16.00. Johnson won this event back in 2010, and has an affinity for courses in Texas as he has recorded three of his seven PGA wins there. David Toms is another previous winner who has met with backing this week, now $26.00 after opening at $31.00. Toms won last year, and his opening two rounds were both 62, so the course holds no fears for him!

In Europe, Wentworth will host the BMW where Luke Donald is the opening $8.50 favourite. Donald defeated Lee Westwood here last year, and was in a tie for second behind Simon Khan back in 2010. That is terrific form, justifies his quote, and explains the level of interest in him. Westwood is on the second line of betting at $11.00, but surprisingly has been shunned by punters. That is not the case though with Rory McIlroy ($12.00) who is the next pick in the betting. The Irishman is always popular each time he goes around, but on his current form we think he may struggle. Justin Rose lost in a playoff here in 2007 and has been in really good form this year, so for those looking for value, the Englishman looks value at $19.00.

RACING

The Doomben 10000 will be held on Saturday, and with a chance of rain on Friday, there have been a few interesting betting moves.

Current race favourite is Sea Siren, but since the barrier draw, Sea Siren has been a little easy in the betting, out to $4.20 from $4.00. Buffering is the interesting runner after missing a run through a hoof injury. There has been good interest in Buffering with close to $5000 in bets arriving on Thursday at $5.50, but that price is still available. How the race will be run is going to be the key with Buffering as speedster Adebisi and Buffering look like they could engage in a speed battle up front, and that might set the race up for the ‘run ons’. One of those is the ever popular Woorim, and he has been very well supported, particularly by each way punters. Trainer Peter Moody is riding on the crest of a wave at the moment, and his mare Mid Summer Music looks might hard to beat. The $12.00 chance handles all types of track conditions, and had to be ridden little upside down when going down narrowly at the Gold Coast last start. Look for her to be charging home if the pace is on.

GREYHOUNDS

The ‘Black Caviar of Greyhounds’, Miata, is a red hot $1.22 chance to win the Sandown Cup on Thursday night. The WA champ smashed the track record in her heat, and after drawing favourably in box two, there is a strong chance that she will again lead tonight. If that is to be the case, then it should be just a matter of ‘times and margins’, hence the short price. Miata has done a lot to lift the profile of greyhound racing in the past month or so, and that can only be a good thing for the sport.

MULTI OF THE WEEK

Congratulations are due for a remarkable four-leg Round 11 NRL multi which collected $15,120 after a client bet $4 at 3779/1

West Tigers 1-6 v NZ Warriors at $6.00
North Queensland 1-6 v Penrith at $6.00
Manly 7-12 v Sydney Roosters at $5.00
St George/Souths Draw at $21.00