TattsBet News 17th May
By Tatts Staff
- May 17, 2012 2:52PM
With the Origin players ineligible to play this week, betting on the five NRL games has been on the quiet side, but that is understandable. Having said that, it is a very intriguing round of games, and all five matches could go either way.
There is still a lot of doubt about the form of the West Tigers, and they will be at home against the Warriors on Friday night. The Tigers are slight favs at $1.85, but the early trading has all been for the Warriors at $1.95, and the signs are that the Warriors might start a little shorter.
The Dragons went down to Penrith on Monday night, and while they might get Jamie Soward back, they have a mounting injury list, and will be missing some key names this week against Souths. The Rabbitohs lose Greg Inglis and Dave Taylor to Origin duty, but they have been in form and still have a good side on paper. The betting opened at $1.91 for both sides, but once again punters have gone for the ‘away’ side with most of the action coming for Souths.
The Sharks provided the upset of the season when they defeated the Storm last week. They didn’t have Paul Gallen on that occasion, and won’t have him again this week, but also lose Todd Carney. They go into Monday night’s game against the Bulldogs as $2.65 underdogs, and while it will be hard for them to win, there is a strong belief in that side now. The Bulldogs on the other hand have been very disappointing, and punters are finding it hard to come for them at $1.48.
The betting on Game One of the Origin series has been ticking along nicely. To date, there hasn’t been any big bets come in, they normally come close to game time, but there has been some interest shown in NSW at $2.65 to ambush Queensland in Melbourne. On paper it is hard to see that happening, but while some of the NSW players have been clearly out of form, at their best they are more than capable. It will be very interesting to see if Ricky Stuart and his coaching team can extract the best out of those players, but it does seem as though many punters think it will be a contest.
The Friday night clash between Collingwood and Geelong is shaping as one of the betting games of the year, and surprisingly the first move in betting has been for the Magpies. After opening at $1.72, Collingwood are into $1.67, and Geelong have eased to $2.20. Geelong were belted last week by the Crows, but it does appear as though they will have Jimmy Bartell back, and quite possibly Matthew Scarlett, so the $2.20 looks good value.
There seems to be a hoodoo associated with each team that gains flag favourite status this year, and it will be interesting to see if Hawthorn ($5.00 fav) can break that hex when they travel to Launceston to take on Fremantle. Punters cannot see an upset as the $1.19 for a Hawks win has been popular, especially through the multis.
The Gold Coast were disappointing against the Giants last week, and while not too many think that they can beat the Bulldogs this week (Suns are $5.50), they have met with solid support receiving 34 points start. $5000 worth of bets came for the Suns with that start before it moved in a point, and we continue to see money for them with the start. There was similar action for Richmond with 13.5 start against Essendon. The Tigers have looked good this year, but we have been taken with Essendon’s form, and they deserve to be as short as they are.
Carlton were woeful in their loss to St Kilda on Monday night, and there has been a really good push for Adelaide to beat them on Sunday. After opening at $3.25, the Crows quickly firmed into $3.10, with Carlton out to $1.37. Adelaide have lost at their last 8 appearances at Etihad Stadium, so they will be looking to alter that stat! The Blues have drifted to $6.00 in flag betting, while the Crows have been a significant mover, now into $13.00. A win here would see them as a real threat to the top of the market.
Upsets last weekend were not only confined to the AFL and NRL. The win by the Melbourne Rebels over the Crusaders was probably the biggest upset of all. What made it all the more staggering was the Rebels were able to hold the Crusaders scoreless in the second half. That loss has put a lot of pressure on the Crusaders going forward, and while they are on the second line of title betting at $4.25, they face a near on impossible task to grab an important top 2 spot. The Stormers are the new favourites at $3.50 ahead of the Crusaders, then we have the Chiefs ($5.00) and the Bulls ($5.50). The Reds are finding form, and are back in to $11.00.
So, with that win over the Crusaders, you would think that the Rebels would be red hot favourites against the Force, but that isn’t the case. The game will be held in Perth, and betting has opened at $1.90 for both. The Force and the Rebels both have plenty of convictions, and that is evidenced by the fact that less than $100 has gone on the Rebels in the first day of betting, even though their form says they should be shorter.
All eyes will be on Quade Cooper as he makes his long awaited return for the Reds against the Lions on Saturday night. The Reds were impressive beating the Chiefs, and equally as impressive when going down narrowly to the Crusaders, and while they should dispose of the Lions, the interest is in the margin. The line has been set here at -17.5 points, and punters have been very keen to take that, and with a handicap like that being taken, one would think that the Reds should be able to get a bonus point out of the expected win.
Matchplay golf is made for TV, and this week the European Tour hosts the Volvo World Matchplay at Finca Corstein. It will be the third year that the event will be held at the Spanish course after leaving Wentworth, and it will be the second time that the altered matchplay format will be used. In this version, the 24 players will play in groups of three, with two to advance to a final 16. Ian Poulter defeated Like Donald last year, and while Donald is one of many big names not playing, Poulter is $10.00 to go back to back. German Martin Kaymer is the $8.00 favourite with Tattsbet, and he appears to have a very good draw. Kaymer is grouped with Rafael Cabrero-Bella and Richard Finch, and that should see him through to the final 16. Early money has come in for Charl Schwartzel ($11.00), Brandt Snedeker ($26.00-$23.00) and Retief Goosen at $51.00.
Australians have had a great record in the Byron Nelson Championship, and they are well to the fore in betting on that event this week.
Jason Day has a couple of events under his belt after returning from an ankle injury, and is a $19.00 chance to improve on his record in Texas having won the event in 2010 before finishing 5th behind Keegan Bradley last year. Bradley has been popular with our punters this week, and has firmed from $21.00 into $19.00, with money also coming for Carl Pettersson ($26.00) and Ernie Els ($29.00). Els is another who has won here before and has been in good form recently.
The two at the head of betting do look the pair to beat however, namely Phil Mickelson ($11.00) and Adam Scott ($12.00). Mickelson has been quiet this year, but is more than capable of winning, and Scott showed last week that he is very close to regaining the form that saw him win the Byron Classic in 2008.
Ford has had the better of Holden so far in this V8 season, and the Fords are heavily favoured to win at Phillip Island this weekend after a clean sweep in Perth. Mark Winterbottom won the first race in Perth before Will Davison won the last two, and Winterbottom is slightly favoured at $3.20 ahead of Davison ($3.40) this week in Race One. Jamie Whincup is next in line at $4.25, and is the driver who punters have again stuck with, while Craig Lowndes is fourth pick at $6.50. The Phillip Island races have been endure races with teams the last few years, but this season will see the return of the normal format with Race One on Saturday and the second event on Sunday . Betting will be suspended while the practise/qualifying sessions are held, and will re-open soon after.
Casey Stoner is the $1.85 favourite to win the French motoGP this weekend, and while he did win last start in Portugal, there must still be a lot of concern over the circulation problems he is having in his arm. It cost him victory in Qatar, and in his post-race interviews after Portugal he once again said that he thought it would cost him victory. That hasn’t deterred his fans however as he has been backed to win again, but there is also interest in second elect Jorge Lorenzo ($2.50). Lorenzo finished second behind Stoner last start and did win at Le Mans in 2010, but Casey Stoner is the defending champion.
Might stayer Miata will be in action in a heat of the Sandown Cup tonight (Thurs), and while she will go around as an unbackable favourite, Tattsbet is offering fixed odds on two feature races.
Jason Thompson has the first two in the betting in the Sapphire Crown Final with El Brooklyn ($2.80) and Peggy May ($3.75). Both are capable of running fast times but both must lead to win. Peggy May ran a quicker first section last week but was run down by It’s a Blur, and the way the draw has panned out, we think that It’s a Blur ($4.60) might be able to do the same again from box 8.
The other feature race is The Dawson, and Cape Hawk ($2.05) will exit from box 3 after the fastest heat win. Cape Hawke has returned from a long injury layoff in fine fettle, and while there doesn’t appear to be much pace in the race, bolter Smoke Home ($26.00) could present a problem early. Wy Yung Tiger has fantastic form from wide draws, so looks terrific value ($8.50) drawn out there in box 8.
The Peter Moody juggernaut heads north this week, and punters think that Moody will add the Doomben Cup to his trophy cabinet. Moody trains pre-race favourite Manighar, and the ex-import has already firmed from $2.70 into $2.50 after the barrier draw. Manighar has really turned the corner since moving to the Moody stable, but has had a decent break since his last run, that is the only danger here. Kiwi mare Shez Sinsational was just that winning at the Gold Coast, and has also been well supported at $5.00, while the other Moody runner, Lights of Heaven, in next in contention at $5.50. German import Mawingo failed on the Gold Coast in the Hollindale Cup, but was not at home on the shifty surface. For that reason he has been kept safe in the market at $9.00, and the stable has warned to prepare for a marked improvement.
There will be seven Group races at Doomben on Saturday, and apart from the Cup, the race that has captured most attention has been the Lord Mayors Cup. Race favourite is Solzhenitsyn ($3.60), and he will be backing up from last Saturday. Our race analysts think he is definitely suspect at 1600m, so Tattsbet will be taking him on. Kiwi Ginga Dude has had a slight setback which meant he couldn’t go around in Doomben Cup over the longer journey, but he has been best backed in early trading at $5.00. In a very tricky race, the value might lie with Fillydelphia. The $7.50 pop always runs an honest race, is fit, and is suited by the distance.
ROOTING FOR JUVE
A Tattsbet punter is looking for Juventus to lift their first Italian Cup since 1995 as the last leg of a five-leg European soccer multi.
After investing just under $900, the client stands to collect over $57,000 should the Serie A club get past Napoli on Sunday night.
$886 at $63.41 Five-Leg European Soccer Multi (to win $57,591)
Chelsea at $2.20 to beat Liverpool in FA CUP Final (won)
Atletico Madrid at $1.85 to win Europa League (won)
Manchester City at $2.75 to win English Premier League (won)
Borussia Dortmund at $2.80 to beat Bayern Munich in DFB Pokal Final (won)
Juventus at $2.10 to beat Napoli in Italian Cup Final (played 21/5)