TattsBet News 10th May

AFL

The upcoming round of AFL looks very tough on paper, and while we have had some red hot favourites over the past few weeks, only Hawthorn ($1.02) and Fremantle ($1.12) fall into that category on the weekend.

The Hawks should have a big win over Melbourne on Friday night, but we have seen a sprinkling of money for the Demons with 50.5 points start. Looking at the weather maps that is understandable as the mail is there could be storms from Friday onwards in Melbourne, but the Demons haven’t shown yet that they are capable of mixing it with the best.

Adelaide did a fantastic job to beat Sydney last week, and while Crows supporters think they are value at $2.25 to beat Geelong on Saturday, some of Tattsbet’s bigger punters disagree. In amongst a series of four figure bets for the Cats there is also a bet of $10,000 for them to beat the line of -6.5 points ($1.90), so we will be looking for Adelaide to go right on with last week’s form.

Cellar dwellars GWS and the Suns face off in Canberra on Saturday as well, and this has been a really good betting game. There is a lot at stake, and the bets have been split down the middle, both at head to head and also the line, which has been set at -17.5 in favour of the Gold Coast. The crucial factor to the betting is whether or not Gary Ablett will play. He has trained this week, if he is named, expect the $1.40 for the Suns to disappear.

They say the more you win the better price you are, and that is the case with the Eagles this week. They go into the clash against Essendon as outsiders at $2.08, but they will shorten up a little if Nic Natanui is back in the side. The Bombers do play well at Etihad, and are capable of kicking a big score there, and the lack of forwards for the Eagles may be their undoing. In early trading the betting has been divided between the two sides, but as mentioned, it all depends on what happens with Natanui.

Scott Pendlebury is now the $5.00 favourite to win the Brownlow, but it is Adelaide’s Patrick Dangerfield who is now very much on the radar. Dangerfield was backed to win close to $200,000 with Tattsbet before the season started (126-1), and is now a $26.00 chance.

RUGBY LEAGUE

The Brisbane Broncos are rarely the outsiders at home away from the Origin series, but they go into Friday night’s double header as $1.95 against Manly ($1.85). The prices are based on Peter Wallace being out of the Broncos side, but youngster Ben Hunt did an admirable job when he filled in earlier in the season. Manly are also coming off a shorter break, and really did struggle to put Canberra away in their 18-12 win. The value looks to be with Brisbane.

It is hard to believe that before the season got under way that the Tigers and Newcastle were the best backed to win the title. The wheels have well and truly fallen off at Newcastle as their injury list grows, and they were woeful against the Roosters last week. While they will be at home this week, the Knights are $2.15 underdogs to beat North Queensland, and there is little or no interest in them. The Cowboys have already attracted a couple of bets around the $2000 mark, and it does appear as though they may even start shorter. This will probably be the last time for a while that their team will be together, so the 2 points will be crucial.

The Origin teams will be announced on Sunday night, and no matter who NSW name, the Maroons will go into game 1 as red hot favs to win the series. After opening at $1.80, Queensland are now $1.50, and that price movement has come about due to a host of long term injuries to the Blues. Betting to win game 1 will be open after the teams are announced, but expect Queensland to be short odds!

RUGBY UNION

It is make or break for a couple of the Australian teams this weekend as the top 6 of Super Rugby starts to take shape. The ACT Brumbies have been the real surprise packet of the competition, and $13.00 to win the title after opening at $34.00. They head the Australian conference, and that puts the pressure on both the Reds and Waratahs as they try and fight their way into a very congested top 6. Both of those sides are involved games that could go either way this week, and the betting moves have been interesting to watch. The Waratahs welcome back Rocky Elsom as captain, and they will be at home to the Bulls on Friday night. The betting opened at $1.90 for both sides, but the early activity has been slanted towards the Waratahs. If they lose, it could be curtains for the Waratahs as they are currently only on 26 points. The same does apply to the Reds, and they play the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Suncorp. The Reds were valiant in defeat last week when they went down 15-11 to the Crusaders, and while there were some good signs there, they are the slight outsiders in Sundays clash. The Reds opened at $2.00 with the Chiefs at $1.80, and while some diehard Reds fans have taken that price, the early trading figures have the bets running at 3-1 in favour of the Chiefs.

The Crusaders look likely to finish in the bottom half of the final six, but remain $3.50 favourites to win the title. The Stormers ($4.00) and the Chiefs ($4.25) are the next two in the betting, but the Bulls ($7.00) have crept up to 42 points even though they have lost two games, and a win over the Reds this week could be crucial in the run into the finals.

FORMULA ONE

There have been four individual winners so far this F1 season, but on the back of a win in Bahrain, Sebastian Vettel is Tattsbet’s $3.40 to make it two in a row this week in Spain.

Vettel won this race last year, but the Red Bulls were a lot more dominant than they have been so far this season, and while there has been early money for Vettel at his opening price, others have attracted more business. Those include Jenson Button ($4.50), Kimi Raikkonen ($8.50), Mark Webber ($11.00) and Fernando Alonso at $15.00. Webber has a good record in Spain finishing fourth last year, a win in 2010 and a third the previous year. He hasn’t been far away in each race so far this year, finishing fourth on each occasion. The Driver’s Championship is still very open with Vettel the favourite at $2.70 ahead of Lewis Hamilton ($3.25) and Jenson Button at $4.50, while Webber is still a $13.00 chance.

SUPERBIKES

The two European superbike races will be held at Donington Park this weekend, and the riders Championship is alive and well after Tom Sykes won the only completed race in Monza, and that victory saw his title price cut to $4.50. Carlos Checa still heads the betting at $2.25, with Max Biaggi splitting that pair at $3.00. That trio will be at the forefront of the race markets this week, but Jonathon Rea and Marco Melandri are capable of causing an upset, particularly Melandri who won a race here last year and he wasn’t far away in Monza.

NETBALL

The Queensland Firebirds chalked up their second win of the ANZ Championship season when 13 point winners over the Mystics, and that has seen the title odds crash back in to $6.00. They occupy the third line of betting behind the unbeaten Vixens ($2.50) and the Thunderbirds ($3.50), and while the Firebirds have still only won two of six games, they were beaten by 1 point the previous week by the Vixens, and that was after leading by 8. The Thunderbirds have only been beaten once, and have so far justified their heavy backing pre-season where they firmed from $15.00 into $7.00. The Adelaide side host the Fever this week, and that should be an easy win, while the Vixens travel north to take on the Swift who will be going for three wins in a row. This will not be an easy assignment for either side given the rivalry between the two, but we expect that the Vixens will get home in a close one.

GOLF

The Players Championship at Sawgrass is often referred to as the fifth major, and all of the big names will be in action from Thursday onwards.

Rory McIlroy is the opening $10.00 favourite with Tattsbet, and while punters have been keen on the Irishman, it is worth noting that he has started in this event twice and missed the cut twice! It has proven a difficult event to win with both Tiger Woods ($21.00) and Phil Mickelson ($21.00) only able to win here once, and nobody has been able to make it two in a row. During the last two years, the previous winners have missed the cut, so that does not augur well for defending champ K.J. Choi who will go in as an $81.00 chance. The betting has been scattered amongst several players including Adam Scott ($29.00), Justin Rose ($51.00-$34.00), Steve Stricker ($34.00) and Martin Kaymer ($61.00-$51.00). All of the starts point towards the winner being non-American, and somebody coming from outside of the ‘big’ names, so that would explain the vast number of players that have been backed at longer odds.

There will be ten Aussies in action this week, and Adam Scott is the $3.50 favourite to win that group ahead of Jason Day at $4.00.

RACING

The Brisbane Carnival begins in earnest this week with the running of the BTC Cup, and the barrier draw has made it interesting.

Buffering was backed from $2.50 into $2.40 on Monday, but now having to contend with barrier 14 has seen that price extended to $2.60.It does seem to be a race that lacks a lot of pace, and the Tattsbet race assessors have major concerns about where Buffering will end up from the horror draw. Punters view it differently however as they have been eager to take the price with 80% of the money taken Wednesday and Thursday coming for the favourite. Sea Siren is second pick at $7.50, but outside of Buffering the interest has been in beaded ($13.00-$10.00), Woorim ($14.00) and Temple of Boom at $14.00. The speed of the race will be a factor, especially if Woorim is to have any chance at all, but one thing is for certain, Buffering will appreciate not having to contend with Black Caviar and Hay List!

And while talking about Black Caviar, the great mare is $1.04 to win the Goodwood Handicap at Morphetville on Saturday, her last run before heading to the UK. Naturally multi punters have been coupling up Black Caviar with all of their favourite sporting teams for the weekend, but we continue to see a heap of small bets for her to win, and the only explanation can be that people want to say that they backed a champion. In fact the first bet taken on her when the fixed odds opened on Wednesday was $2.00, for a win of 8 cents.

NOTABLE BETS

$10,000 at $1.90 Geelong -6.5 v Adelaide AFL Rnd 7 (now $1.80)
$8,550 at $2.35 Atletico Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao in Europa League Final (won)