TattsBet News 5th April

RUGBY LEAGUE

No side has ever gone 1-5 and gone on to win the NRL premiership, so all does not look good for the Tigers. They were backed from $11.00 into $6.00 to take the title before Round One, and while they had a lucky win in the opening round, they have remained winless since. They are now out to $15.00, but really should be a lot longer, it is just that they are a liability in the Tattsbet premiership book. If they cannot beat the Broncos on Friday night, then it may well be curtains for the Tigers. Robbie Farah is back this week, and there has been money for them at $2.45 to get back on track, but the late inclusion of Corey Parker into the Brisbane side has seen money swing the other way.

The Titans have been copping it everywhere, both on and off the field, but with a few of the off field drama’s dealt with this week, it appears as though league enthusiasts think they will chalk up win number two. There is plenty to say that the Titans ($2.15) will beat the enigmatic Roosters on Saturday afternoon.

There is a fixture on in Townsville on Sunday night when the Cowboys take on the Storm. The Storm have a fantastic record against the Cowboys, but this can be viewed as a danger game as the Cowboys did defeat Melbourne (in shocking conditions) in Townsville last year. There were a lot of happy North Queensland punters after their side beat Canberra last Monday night, and a lot of them have come back again to take the $2.45 against Melbourne. Early trading has seen twice as many bets for the Cowboys as there has been for the unbeaten Storm.

If you haven’t fared too well in NRL tipping competitions so far, there is a pretty good reason why. Of the 40 games so far, only 21 favourites have saluted, the worst start for favourites in the history of the NRL!

AFL

The Round One losses to Melbourne and St Kilda was enough to see the bookies come out slightly ahead of the punters. There were some exciting games that went right down to the final siren, and that meant some fascinating live betting games. Favouritism changed over 20 times in the Essendon v North Melbourne game before the Bombers luckily escaped with a 2 point victory.

It is odd that in what appears to be a very even competition that in Round 2 we have six favourites that are $1.26 or shorter. That has seen a big increase in multi business for the round as punters couple up all of the ‘good things’. The danger with that is that we are only going on one round of form, and there are often big form reversals. Picking which one is the trick though isn’t it?

Brisbane thrashed Melbourne last week, and must be given some hope ($3.40) of rolling Carlton on Thursday night. The Blues are in to $7.00 to win the flag after last week’s win, and turned around their pre-season form. We think that the GWS can definitely get with 76 points of North Melbourne on Sunday. This game will be the first of the Tasmanian ‘home’ games for the Roos, and more often than not there is dodgy whether in Tasmania. The GWS were ok against the Swans, but have a better looking side in this week. The Suns look a strong hope of keeping within 53 points against the Saints on Sunday. St Kilda had a tough game last week, and always have trouble kicking big scores, so Tattsbet is keen to take them on at the minus.

Monday’s blockbuster between Geelong and Hawthorn has been robbed of a lot of interest with the suspension of Matthew Scarlett. That has seen the Cats go into this game at $2.50, with the bulk of early support for Hawthorn at $1.53.

Hawthorn are the new flag favourites ($3.75) after Round One, with the other significant movers being Carlton ($9.00 into $7.00) and the Eagles ($15.00 into $11.00). Scott Pendlebury had a blinder in Collingwood’s loss to Hawthorn and is new Brownlow favourite at $8.00 with Gary Ablett another notable firmer, now into $9.00 equal second favourite with Dane Swan.

SUPER RUGBY

Favourites have had a pretty torrid time of it this Super Rugby season as well with only 26 winning from the 41 games played up until this week. The big shock last week was the much improved Cheetahs beating the Hurricanes by 11 points after being well down early. The Reds were beaten again, and have blown out to $10.00 to win the title, where the Crusaders remain $3.50 favs ahead of the unbeaten Stormers at $5.50.

It is getting to the stage where the Reds must win another game, and while Tattsbet rate them as $1.66 fav’s against the Brumbies on Friday night, the early money has been for the Brumbies at $2.20. The Stormers travel to NZ to play the Highlanders, and in what is shaping as a terrific betting game, the home side going in as public elects at $1.75. We are happy to stick with the Highlanders as they have been impressive at home this year.

There are several close betting games this week, and the result of most will have an effect on the futures markets. The Bulls went down narrowly to the Stormers last week while the Crusaders had a scratchy win when they came from behind to beat the Lions. That was far from impressive, and they are the $2.20 outsiders against the Bulls, and from early betting trends it appears as though punters give them little chance of winning. The Crusaders are slow beginners every year, but always go up another cog when playing the better sides, so expect an improved performance in what will be a tough battle.

MOTO GP

Aussie Casey Stoner is Tattsbet’s $1.70 favourite to win this year’s Riders Championship, and he will go into the first race of the season in Qatar as a warm $1.62 favourite. Stoner has been tearing up the tracks in testing sessions for several months, and it is a similar campaign that led to him winning the same event last year. He does appear to be on top of the injuries that have hampered him for the last two seasons. Jorge Lorenzo is the second pick ($4.00) to win in Qatar, and is the obvious danger. He finished second to Stoner last year and won here in 2010, so can handle the humid conditions. Betting will be suspended while all of the practise and qualifying sessions are on, and will re-open soon after.

NETBALL

It didn’t take long to see the biggest upset of the ANZ netball season - just two games. The Queensland Firebirds went through last season without suffering a defeat, but they were amazingly run down by the Vixens, and it was at home! The Firebirds were $1.03 to win this game, and the line was set at -13.5, although one punter thought the Vixens could stay in touch with a bet of $4000 on the line. Just when we recovered from that shock, Southern Steel defeated the Magic on Monday night, so the first two sides in title betting went down for the opening round. The Magic were $1.08, and were like the Firebirds, were popular in multi-bets.

So after one round, we are left scratching our heads as to what it all means. The Firebirds have eased from $2.50 out to $2.75, the Magic have gone from $5.50 to $6.00, but the big movers have been the Fever ($6.00 into $5.00), the Vixens ($9.00 into $6.50) and the Thunderbirds ($9.00 into $7.00). We have mentioned before that the Thunderbirds had been backed for plenty to win the title (opened at $15.00), and they opened their season account with a good 17 point win over the Swift.

GOLF

Tiger Woods got into $4.50 to win this week’s US Masters late last week, but as we draw closer to the start, he has drifted out in the betting. Tiger is now a $5.75 chance, and while there is still solid support for him, there certainly isn’t the support from big punters that we became accustomed to prior to his fall from grace. He did chalk up his first PGA win in over two years a fortnight ago, but he was a long time in the wilderness, and it appears as though there are plenty who think he is under the odds. Rory McIlroy is second elect at $7.50 ahead of Phil Mickelson ($12.00), Like Donald ($16.00), and the well backed trio of Adam Scott ($23.00), Lee Westwood ($23.00) and Jason Day ($26.00). We all know what happened with Scott and Day last year, and it seems Aussie fans think that one of this pair will break the 76 year hoodoo of Australians at the Masters.

There are a host of additional betting types available on the Masters, and there has been huge interest in the ‘Top ‘Aussie’ market. Ironically, while Adam Scott and Jason Day have been well supported to win the Masters, punters have a preference for Geoff Ogilvy ($5.50) and John Sendon ($6.50) to be the first Australian home. That doesn’t make a lot of sense, but either does the fact that there have been more bets placed on amateur Brydon MacPherson to be Top Aussie at $51.00 than Jason Day at $3.75! Another exotic bet type that is always popular is whether or not there will be a hole in one. The ‘no’ option is the favourite here at $1.73, with ‘yes’ at $2.05.

CRICKET

In years gone by, a trip to the West Indies by the Australian cricket side nearly always ended in tears. Times have changed however, and the Windies are no longer the force they were, particularly in the Test arena. Apart from the fact that they seem to have lost the ability to bring through legitimate fast bowlers, they are now also brittle in the batting area. Very few test matches involving the Windies end in a draw as their mentality has shifted to the shorter forms of the game. Australia go into the first test as warm $1.62 favourites, a draw is unwanted at $3.50, and the West Indies are $5.75. There has been a sprinkling of support for the home side (in from $6.00), and that is understandable as neither side feature in many draws, but the Windies will have to perform to their very best if they are to have any hope at all. Betting will be updated at the end of each days play.

GREYHOUNDS

The world’s richest greyhound race will be conducted at Wentworth Park on Saturday night. The Golden Easter Egg carries a prize of $250,000, and the cash looks like it will be heading south of the border after the Queensland owned, Victorian trained Don’t Knocka Him drew the coveted red box. The Jason Thompson trained sprinter was easily the fastest heat winner, and after drawing favourably, Tattsbet has installed him as favourite at $1.85. On the heat run, that is probably over the odds, but it is a final and there are often upsets. Another Victorian in Dyna Bert is second pick at $4.00, with Fancy Dean appearing to be the best of the local hopes at $6.50.

RACING

At the start of this week, Samaready and All Too Hard were $3.00 equal favourites to win Saturday’s Golden Slipper, but the shock non-acceptance of All Too Hard has seen Samaready firm up in the market. She is now a $2.60 chance, and punters have not been turned off by a wide barrier as there is any amount of support for her at $2.60. The biggest bet for the week has been $10,000, but there are numerous four figure amounts behind that. Pierro is the second fav at $6.00 with Epaulette and No Looking Back on the next line of betting at $8.50. There is little doubt that Samaready is a special filly, but she does get back in the field and that will make her task a little bit harder in the big field of 16. We have to take her on at that price!

There are a few ‘specials’ available on the Slipper, with the most popular of those being which one of the Gai Waterhouse horses will be the first to finish. Pierro is $2.50 favourite in that market ahead of No Looking Back at $3.50, but that is the runner that punters have plonked for. There is also support for Later Gator at $21.00. No doubt the crowd on course will be cheering for Later Gator to win the Slipper as it is owned by John Singleton, renowned for shouting the bar when his horses win a big race.