TattsBet News 19th April

RUGBY LEAGUE

There will be no NRL games on this week with the Test and City/Country getting a stand alone weekend, but the prices for Round 8 are up and running. There hasn’t been anything to report in early trading, and we wouldn’t expect there to be until after the two games at the weekend.

The Test has created plenty of headlines with James Tamou playing for Australia. That should ensure extra viewers even though the game will be delayed for television (starts 18.15 AEST) on Friday night. Tattsbet opened Australia at $1.38, but that was quickly snapped up. The Kiwi’s have eased out to $3.20, and while we are seeing bets come through for them, the numbers are small. Even the line of +8.5 hasn’t been viewed as attractive, so we suspect that Australia will probably shorten up a bit. New Zealand have beaten Australia before, but lining up the two sides on paper it is hard to see it happening this week.

The City v Country game has had controversy as well with Danny Buderus withdrawing with an injury. This fixture is normally quiet as it is often played the same time that the Tests are on, but this year the match will be played in Mudgee on Sunday afternoon. There was a significant betting move for Country in the first 24 hours of trading which saw the price move from an opening $1.60 into $1.50. As a result of that City have drifted out to $2.65, and the line has been set at 6.00. All of the usual bets types that are available on NRL games will be available on both of these matches.

AFL

Gary Ablett could possibly have nine Brownlow votes after three rounds, and that has seen his price slashed to $4.50 favourite. Ablett was one of the best backed players before the season started; firming from $15.00 into $11.00, but it will still be difficult to win the Brownlow in a side that is unlikely to win more than 5 or 6 games. Carlton’s Marc Murphy is now into $7.00 narrowly ahead of Chris Judd at $8.00, but the one player who has been flying under the radar has been Sydney’s Josh Kennedy. Kennedy is another who has probably polled in all three games, and after opening at $151.00, he is now into $17.00.

Collingwood’s loss to Carlton has seen them blow out to $8.00 to win the flag, and not surprisingly there hasn’t been a lot of interest in them this week. Hawthorn remain the fav’s at $4.00 narrowly ahead of Carlton ($4.25), the Eagles ($5.75) and Geelong at $6.00. It does seem a much more even competition than we have seen over the past few years, so that is always good for flag betting.

Carlton and Essendon are two of the unbeaten sides in the competition, but you wouldn’t think so looking at the betting on their clash this week. The Bombers have gone from an opening $5.00 out to $6.25, and the Blues are in to $1.12. All the talk is that Essendon may rest some players with an eye on their Anzac Day match against Collingwood, but they are still a big price. Even the line for Carlton (-39.5) has been solidly backed with $15,000 worth of bets forcing that price from $1.90 into $1.80.

Sydney are another side yet to suffer a loss, but the Kangaroos have been really well backed to beat them this week. Adam Goodes is out, but the big money for the Roos has come after that news, with the price coming in from $2.15 to $2.08. Several thousand dollars has also been placed on the Roos with 4.5 points start, and that is in to $1.82. There is every chance that the SCG will be a bog after the rain this week, and our AFL analyst thinks that the Swans will be more at home in wet conditions, but punters clearly disagree.

FORMULA ONE

The ‘on again off again’ Bahrain GP will now go ahead, and with the season producing three individual winners from the three races conducted so far, we are looking forward to an exciting race. The McLaren pairing of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button dominate the mark at $2.70 and $3.00 respectively, and while they do look the ones to beat, there has been a good spread of business. Nico Roseberg did a good job to win in China last week, and there are plenty who think he can repeat the dose ($7.50), and there has been similar support for Michael Schumacher ($11.00) and Mark Webber ($13.00). The only one in the market who has been neglected is Sebastien Vettel ($9.00), and that is amazing considering his domination last season. There was no race at Bahrain last year, but Ferrari did quinella the race in 2010 when Fernando Alonso defeated Felipe Massa, while Button won the race back in 2009. Betting will be closed each day while the practise/qualifying sessions are conducted and will re-open soon afterwards.

V8’s

The V8’s will be in action in New Zealand this weekend, and races held in Hamilton can throw up strange results as it is a street circuit. Last year the races were won by Rick Kelly and Shane Van Gisbergen, and the three placing’s in each event were filled by different drivers, and that is a rarity. Jamie Whincup failed to flatter finishing 23rd and 18th, and while he is the opening $3.25 favourite to win race one, there hasn’t been the level of interest shown in him that we usually see. Mark Winterbottom ($4.50), Will Davison ($4.50) and Van Gisbergen ($9.00) have all been backed in the first few days of betting, and there has also been good money for Crain Lowndes at $6.50.

SUPERBIKES

Veteran Carlos Checa is odds on at $1.95 to win the Superbike Championship, and from what we have seen so far this season looks the one to beat in Assen this week. Checa won both races at Imola after recording one win at Philip Island (Max Biaggi won the other), so he deserves to be a short favourite to win in the Netherlands. The Assen track suits Checa as well, he won the second race here last year after Jonathon Rea won the first, but Rea hasn’t been able to capture that form so far this season.

BASKETBALL

Game 2 of the NBL finals series is due to get under way in Perth on Friday night, and the home side go in as very warm $1.40 favourites. The first match went into overtime with New Zealand winning, and that was after they led by 15 points at half time. They have beaten Perth in Perth this year, but have injury concerns. If that wasn’t enough, there is a bad virus going through the camp which has seen some players barred from training this week, and that is going to make it difficult. Punters have sided with Perth who have been $1.43 into $1.40 already, and there is also money for them conceding 5.5 points start. With the Breakers holding a series lead, they are currently $1.28, but there has been some support for Perth at $3.55 with punters thinking they can level the series at home.

SOCCER

The path to A-League glory has been made a little easier for the Brisbane Roar after Perth Glory disposed of the Mariners in a penalty shoot-out last week. Brisbane opened as title favourites before the season started, although were replaced by the Mariners when they stumbled half way through the season. The Roar went five games without a win but we continued to see money for them even when drifting to $3.75. They are now $1.30 to win the title, and deserve to be that short. There are numerous bet types open on the big final, and of course there will be live betting throughout. The most popular betting option is the result in 90 minutes, and the Roar have firmed from an opening $1.75 into $1.70. There are some who think Perth can cause an upset as there has been money for Perth at $4.60, whereas there is little or no interest in the draw option at $3.60. That is surprising as a lot of the football finals around the world end in a draw at the end of normal time, so we are more than happy to have that on our side.

GOLF

Most of the big names are missing from both the European and PGA Tour events this week, and that has meant wide betting for both.

The Euro Tour event is the Chinese Open, and Peter Hanson returns after an impressive performance in the Masters. Hanson is Tattsbet’s $14.00 favourite, and has been heavily supported at that price, as has second elect Ian Poulter at 15.00. This event will be played on a Links-style course, and the weather predictions for later in the week are not the best. High winds are expected, and that will make it difficult, especially for those teeing off later in the day.

The Texas Open is the PGA event, and Matt Kuchar is the opening $12.00 favourite. This is a relatively new course as it will be only the third running of the Texas Open here, so it is a bit difficult to line up previous form. Fredrik Jacobsen, Kevin Na and K.J.Choi are on the second line of betting at $23.00, and all three have been backed, as has Charley Hoffman at $29.00. Greg Chalmers and Mark Leishman are the shortest of the Aussies at $51.00, and that pair head the market for Top Aussie at $3.75.

RACING

The ‘big wet’ in Sydney has meant betting on the Doncaster has gone through the roof. Most runners have wet track form, and every runner has been backed. Secret Admirer ($6.00) has replaced More Joyous ($6.50) as favourite, and even though More Joyous is a complete duffer in the wet, there are still those out there prepared to back her in the hope that the weather improves. Sincero ($15.00 into $10.00), Hurtle Murtle ($17.00 into $13.00) and Niagara ($15.00 into $13.00) are the best backed of those at the top of betting, but a lot of the roughies including Wall Street, Absolutely, Fast Clip and emergency Happy Trails have all been backed to win big amounts. Absolutely attracted one bet of $500 each way at 100/1 at the start of the week, and is now a $31.00 chance.

Betting on the Oaks is at the other end of the spectrum, it has been very quiet. Streama looks suited at the distance, handles the wet, and is in form, so deserves to be as short as she is at $1.60. Full of Spirit was a late entry into the field and is now the second pick at $4.40, but the punters who have bet on the race only want Streama, particularly through their multi’s.

NOTABLE BETS

$12,000 at $1.95 Carlton 40+ v Essendon AFL Rnd 4 (now into $1.80)
$6,800 at $1.90 North Melbourne +4.5 v Sydney AFL Rnd 4 (now -5.5 $1.90)