TattsBet News 12th April

AFL

The talking point in the AFL this week has centred around the one sided games from last weekend, and judging by what we saw, we had better get used to it. The Eagles travel to Sydney this week to play GWS, and are $1.01 to win. They probably should be a whole lot shorter than that, but amazingly each week we are finding money for the GWS to win at the huge odds, and that trend has continued. The other interesting aspect of this game has been the bets for the Eagles. In amongst the early ones placed, there were two bets of $1 and 3 of $2, with those punters standing to win 1c and 2c each! The line on this game has been set at 104.5, and most of the early money has been for the Eagles conceding the start. The $1.01 head to head for the Eagles gives punters a little bit more interest to their multi’s, and we did take two early ones of $5000 each for the Eagles to win into Richmond -23.5 and the other coupled with Geelong at -29.5.

Scott Pendlebury is the third Brownlow favourite in as many weeks, and the Collingwood star is now $6.00. Marc Murphy, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett and Sam Mitchell all share the second line of betting at $9.00 with Ablett the one of that quartet who has attracted the most bets this week. He would have got votes last week, but will he get enough to win another Brownlow playing in a side that will struggle to win half a dozen games?

There is a log jam at the head of flag betting with Geelong and Hawthorn at $4.50, Collingwood at $5.00, the Carlton ($6.00) and the Eagles ($8.00). Carlton play the Magpies in a blockbuster on Friday night, and no doubt a few would have been surprised when the Blues opened favourites at $1.85. That actually didn’t last long, and the Blues look like they will go into the game around the $1.70 mark. The result will have a significant bearing on premiership betting going forward.

RUGBY LEAGUE

Peter Wallace has apparently been ruled out of the Broncos side that will take on Canberra on Friday night, and that saw their price drift from $1.33 out to $1.45. There has been a little support for the Raiders, especially with 6.5 points start, but as we saw last Monday, sometimes a player missing from the better sides makes little difference. Brett Stewart and Kieran Foran were late withdrawals from Manly against Penrith, the Eagles went for a massive drift in betting from $1.40 to $1.55, and went on to win 30-0! Good sides have the ability to cover the loss of a ‘name’ player, but the sides at the bottom of the table do struggle if in the same boat.

The Roosters take on the Cowboys on Saturday night, and this game creates interest as it will be played in Darwin. The humid conditions at the TIO Stadium will be more suited to the Cowboys, so the Tattsbet league bookmakers have rated the Cowboys as $1.62 chances. Punters disagree as the early money has been for the Roosters at $2.30.

The New Zealand Warriors are fast running out of chances with punters, and if they lose at home to Souths this weekend then we really do have to sit up and access if they are a true premiership hope or not. Their only two wins to date have been against Parramatta and the Titans, and if you recall the Eels did lead 8-0 before Jarred Hayne went off with injury. Perhaps the Warriors aren’t the same side that they were last year, and that would explain why the early trading has favoured Souths at $2.35.

It is strange that the Dragons and Knights played in round 1 yet find themselves facing off with each other in round 7, but that is the case this week. The Dragons got home 15-14 in the season opener, but in that game the Knights were $1.57, and this week it is the Dragons that are a similar price at $1.55. This is shaping as another terrific betting game, with the early money going in favour of the Dragons, more so conceding 4.5 points start.

GOLF

The Masters is over for another year, and there were plenty of happy Tattsbet punters as a result of the win by Bubba Watson. Watson was a $41.00 chance before the opening round, but was one of the more popular players. The biggest pre-tournament bet for him was only $100, but he was the fifth most popular player as far as bets placed was concerned. Even coming into the last round when Phil Mickelson was the $2.50 favourite, punters were still keen on Watson, including one bet of $500 at $7.50.

Watson and a few of the other big names are having this week off to recover, but world number one Luke Donald is lining up in The Heritage where he is the $7.50 favourite. This is a tight course, and Donald has form on the board here having been placed at his last three starts. That is an imposing formline and justifies him being clear favourite. Jim Furyk won here in 2010 and is on the second line of betting at $17.00 along with Matt Kuchar, while last year’s winner Brandt Snedeker is a $29.00 pop. Aaron Badderley found some form at the Masters and also has solid form at Harbour Town being a past winner and also has a second to his credit. Aussie punters have been taking the $34.00 for Baddeley as well as the $3.25 for him to be Top Australian.

The European Tour event this week will be the Malaysian Open, and after handing the green jacket to Bubba Watson on Sunday night (USA time), Charl Shwartzel is equal second favourite at $13.00 behind Martin Kaymer. Schwartzel shares second billing with Louis Oosthuizen who of course was beaten in the playoff by Watson, and there hasn’t been a lot of interest in either, probably due to the travelling they have had to endure. Kaymer (12.00) has been best backed, but there is also interest in Joost Luiten ($34.00), Alvaro Quiros ($34.00) and Alexander Noren ($51.00). There are a handful of Aussies in the field, and the shortest of those are Richard Green and Marcus Frazer, both $67.00 to win the event.

BASKETBALL

Game I in the best of 3 NBL final series will be played in New Zealand on Thursday night, and the Breakers are $1.50 to kick the series off with a win. Both of these sides had to do it the hard way winning at home against the Crocs and Blaze after each tasted defeat, but they have been the form sides of the year, so deserve to play off. These two have only once in NZ this season when the Breakers won 83-77, and the Breakers did beat Perth,in Perth, the last time they met. This is shaping as a terrific betting game with money coming for both sides, but we will be prepared to risk the Breakers after that shock loss to the Crocs at home two weeks ago. New Zealand are $1.65 to win the title with the Wildcats at $2.20, and that betting will be updated Friday morning after game one.

SOCCER

The A League has been getting lots of publicity this week, but it has nothing to do with Saturday’s grand final qualifier!

The Central Coast Mariners will be trying to beat Perth and earn the right to have another crack at Brisbane Roar in the Grand Final. CCM are $2.08 to beat Perth in normal time, and the early money has been for them to do exactly that. The pair have met on three occasions this season with the Mariners winning the first two and Perth winning the last one, at home, a little over a month ago. It is worth noting that the Mariners played that game in Perth in 40 degree heat, two days after returning from an AFC game in China where they played in sub zero temperatures, so don’t read too much into that loss.

The Roar now hold all of the aces, and with the week off go into the final as $1.42 favourites. The Mariners are next in line at $4.00, with Perth the outsider at $7.00

NETBALL

It looks like it might take a few rounds to sort out the form (or lack of it) on the ANZ Netball Championship. Three of the five favs won the opening round, but only one was able to salute in the second week. QLD Firebirds ($2.50) and Waikato/BOP Magic ($5.00) were the two at the head of betting prior to round one, but neither has won a game yet. The smart money was for the Adelaide Thunderbirds ($17.00 into $9.00), and after disposing of the Firebirds in QLD by 10 points at the weekend, the Firebirds are now the title favourites at $3.50. The Vixens were also written off by the experts once Sharelle McMahon pulled out for the season, but they are off to a flyer as well winning both games convincingly. The Vixens are now second picks at $3.75. The one good thing to come out of the two rounds so far is that this competition is much more tighter than what we have seen over the past couple of seasons, and that can only be a good thing.

FORMULA ONE

The third race of the season will be conducted in China this weekend, and once again the McLaren’s head the market. Lewis Hamilton is the $2.75 favourite with Tattsbet, and has good form here having won last year as well as being runner up in 2010 to Jenson Button. Button is a $3.35 chance to win on Sunday, and in early action has actually attracted a lot more bets than Hamilton. The Red Bulls haven’t been able to put it all together yet, and that has meant that Sebastian Vettel is $5.00 with Mark Webber at $11.00, with Fernando Alonso splitting that duo at $8.00. Alonso was a shock winner in Malaysia in terrible conditions. Many have put that down as a fluke as the Ferrari’s have been well off the pace in qualifying, but if he does happen to get those conditions again, then look out for his odds to shorten.

RACING

The Autumn Carnival continues in Sydney this week, and the highlights will be the Derby, the Sires,and the T.J. Smith Stakes. Laser Hawk has been favourite to win the Derby for two weeks, but in the latter part of this week he has been displaced by Silent Achiever, backed from 4.00 into 3.50. The filly was an enormous run behind Laser Hawk last start, but this is a field choc full of class and she will again have to come from well back. Laser Hawk has eased from $3.20 to $3.60, and there has also been support for Ocean Park ($5.50) and Strike the Stars at $14.00.

The Sires Produce is an intriguing race. Boom youngster All Too Hard is the easing $1.67 favourite (out from $1.55), but we are seeing money for him. The mover has been Slipper winner Pierro, into $2.40 after opening at $2.75. Looking at recent history Pierro faces a battle as in the last 20 years, 12 Golden Slipper winners have backed up, and only four have won. Of those twelve, five were unplaced, so it is obviously a tough assignment. It is a good betting race, and form a bookmakers point of view, there is enough talent in amongst the other five runners to give us some hope of an upset.

Rain Affair is the $1.90 favourite to win the T.J.Smith, and so he should be after an ultra impressive win last start when taken on all the way. The small field of 6 runners should suit and it does look like he may well get an easy lead, and for that reason punters have been keen at the $1.90. Foxwedge has admirers at $2.30 after he disposed of Hay List at Moonee Valley last start, but we do know that Rain Affair has a cult following amongst the betting fraternity and will go in as favourite.

NOTABLE BETS

$10,000 at $1.04 Essendon to beat Gold Coast AFL Rnd 3
$8,000 at $1.90 Wests Tigers -3.5 v Penrith NRL Rnd 7
$5,000 at $1.20 Manly to beat Gold Coast NRL Rnd 7