TattsBet News 8th March

RUGBY LEAGUE

Round 1 looked difficult, and that is how it all panned out with only four of the eight favourites winning, with two of those (Tigers and Storm) very fortunate to get the 2 points. If anybody picked 8/8 for the round, we tip our hat to you, but did you take a multi? If so, depending on when you bet, the price for all eight to win was around $241 for each $1 spent. From what we saw in the opening round, it will be possible for any team to beat any of the others, so there will be value all season.

Punters sometimes are not a very forgiving breed, and after one round, the North Queensland Cowboys have become very unpopular. They were terrible last week, but keep in mind Manly lost the opening round last year before going on to win the title! The Cowboys face a task in Brisbane on Friday night, but it seems we are the only ones who think they can rebound. Brisbane opened at $1.50, and within a few hours of opening, in excess of $20,000 worth of bets had forced the price down to $1.47. At the same time, less than $100 had been placed on the Cowboys.

Manly have picked up a few injuries, but money suggests punters think they will beat the Tigers in Gosford on Friday night. Both are coming off a short week, and while Manly had to get back from NZ, the Tigers played in energy sapping conditions against the Sharks. The Sharks host Newcastle on Saturday night, and they have firmed in the betting as well, led up by a bet of $5000 at $2.25 before coming in to $2.20. The Souths bubble burst in spectacular fashion on Monday night, and they travel to Melbourne on Sunday, a place that has not been kind to them in the past. The Storm are $1.40 to win, with the line at -7.5, and all of the early trading has been for the Storm.

Just a reminder that Tattsbet will also be covering all matches of the Queensland Cup. The match of the round will be televised live on Channel 9 each Sunday, and that is very good news for what is a really good competition.

SUPER RUGBY

There was also a mixed bag of results in the second week of the Super Rugby when only four of the seven favourites were able to salute. The big upset was the win by the Highlanders over the Crusaders ($1.40), and with the Blues also beaten again, one must wonder whether or not either side will be the powerhouses that were predicted before the season started. The Crusaders remain title favourites at $3.50, but the Reds ($4.50), Stormers ($7.50) and Chiefs ($13.00) are the sides that have attracted most interest this week.

The Crusaders play the Chiefs this week, and a lot of questions will be answered. Dan Carter has been named on the bench, and that is a big plus for the Crusaders, the $1.48 favourites.

The Highlanders were very impressive last week, and the Waratahs head across the ditch to take them on. The home side have been given favourite status at $1.75 with the Waratahs at $2.05, and the home ground advantage is what tipped the scales in their favour.

The Reds play the Rebels, and are the shortest priced team for the round at $1.14. It looks like the Reds are going to be the anchor in most rugby multis, and on what we have seen of both teams so far, it is hard to argue against. The line has been set at -13.5, with early money for the Reds. The Rebels look a good side on paper, but that has not been shown on the scoreboard yet, so punters are happy to bet against them until they chalk up a win.

AFL

The NAB Cup is up to the third round stage, and if you thought it was difficult to assess up until this point, then have a look at this week! A lot of these sides cannot make the final (only 2 teams after this week), and if Adelaide can beat Collingwood on Friday night, then a lot of the games have no meaning. We saw last week that making the 7 changes at half time can have a big bearing on how the game will finish, but at the end of the day they are still ‘trial’ matches, and should be treated that way.

Adelaide and the West Coast are the top of the betting list to win the final, and Adelaide have named a really strong side to play Collingwood. The Tattsbet AFL analyst has marked the Crows as favourite at $1.72 with Collingwood at $2.10. Essendon meet Sydney on Friday night as well, and both have named strong squads. The game is at Etihaad Stadium, so Essendon have opened favourites at $1.72 ahead of the Swans at $2.10.

Gary Ablett is a mover in Brownlow betting, in from $13.00 to $11.00. Ablett is always popular in the Brownlow, but in the last two weeks close to $2000 has been placed on him. Carlton’s Marc Murphy has support at $17.00, as has Lance Franklin ($26.00 into $21.00) and Fremantle’s Nathan Fyfe at $34.00.

In flag action, Collingwood are back out to $3.75 after sustained support for both Geelong and Hawthorn. Geelong unveiled a lot of youngsters last week, and they were very impressive. The $5.50 was taken this week, and it has been a similar case with Hawthorn who are also $5.00 after being $5.50 last week. Port Adelaide displayed some form during this NAB Cup series which has seen $4000 worth of bets come for Port to contest the finals at $9.00.

BASKETBALL

Tattsbet has a new favourite to win the NBL title following last weekend’s results. The NZ Breakers travelled to Perth and got the points as $2.65 outsiders, and that has elevated the Breakers to top billing at $2.15. Perth look on track for a top two finish and are $2.80 ahead of the Gold Coast Blaze, now at $5.50. The Blaze have a pretty tough run into the finals, and will need a lot of luck to finish in the top two, so should remain around that price even though they have found some form.

There has been a lot of activity to win the NBA title, and while it does look reasonably open on paper, some punters disagree. Two weeks ago a Queensland client placed $6000 on Miami Heat at $3.25, the last week another $6000 bet came at $2.50. The Heat remain at $2.50, and we continue to see bets come for them, but there is also some support for Oklahoma ($5.50) and the Chicago Bulls at $6.00.

FORMULA ONE

The Australian GP is fast approaching, and Tattsbet has opened the market to win in Melbourne. Sebastian Vettel is the $2.50 favourite, and Vettel is also the $2.10 favourite to win the Driver’s Championship. Melbourne has not always been a happy hunting ground for favourites, due to two main factors. There is always a chance of wet weather, and of course a lot of the cars come to Australia after some indifferent testing beforehand. Ferrari claim that they are unhappy with testing so far, and that has seen their number one driver Fernando Alonso blow from an opening $5.00 out to $7.50. Teammate Felipe Massa is a $17.00 chance, and there has been little interest shown in either. Lewis Hamilton ($5.00) is popular in early betting, along with Mark Webber ($7.50) and Kimi Raikkonen who has been backed from $34.00 into $17.00 on the back of some quick times last week. There will be a host of options available on the big race, and they will be open next Wednesday.

GOLF

The world’s top 50 golfers are in the field for the WGC Cadillac Championship which will be played in Doral, Florida, this week.

New world number one Rory McIlroy heads the market with Tiger Woods at $7.00, ahead of Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood at $15.00. McIlroy won last week, but it was hard to miss Tiger who closed with a final round of 62. Both are clearly in form, and have been backed here, but several others have also been targeted by punters. Mickelson, Dustin Johnson ($26.00), Matt Kuchar ($34.00) and Hunter Mahan ($34.00) are right up there with our worst results, while fans of Adam Scott are keen on him at $34.00.For those looking for a player at value, perhaps South African Charl Schwartzel might fit the bill. Schwartzel ($23.00) has played well in this event in the past, and played well to finish in a tie for fifth in the Honda Classic last week.

There is another PGA event on this week. The Puerto Rico open has attracted a handy field of ‘next tier’ players, and Brendon DeJonge and Jeff Overton are the co favourites at $21.00. The field is wide open, and early money has arrived for J.BHolmes ($26.00), Ryo Ishikawa ($26.00) and Michael Bradley, also at $26.00. Bradley won this event last year from Troy Matterson, who is a $61.00 chance.

CRICKET

Well the end to the Australian cricket season is upon us, and the ODI series will be decided in the third and final game in Adelaide this evening.

Sri Lanka spanked the Aussies in Adelaide on Tuesday to take it to a third game, and there was plenty of money to say they could win at around the $2.40 mark. Michael Clarke was again injured and is doubt, and while Dave Warner was again amongst the runs on Tuesday, there must still be a niggling doubt over him. Sri Lanka have found form at the right time, and they have impressed Australian fans as they firmed from $2.20 into $2.08 within hours of the betting being opened. Australia are out to 1.75 from 1.67, and the betting moves would suggest they may even get to a better quote before the toss is done. There is some talk that Malinga is in doubt for Sri Lanka, if he was to pull out Sri Lanka would drift right out, irrespective of who lines up for Australia. There will be live betting at Tattsbet throughout the game, and it would be fair to say that this series has been full of surprises. There have been several turns in the betting in most games, and a heap of good finishes, so maybe the 50 over version of the game isn’t dead just yet?

RACING

A near capacity field of 23 will contest the Newmarket Handicap on Saturday, and all the talk of the weight allocated to Hay List has seen punters steer clear of him. Hay List has been $3.00 for two weeks, but has eased out to $3.75, and looks destined to drift even further. It does seem good odds on his form, even given the weight. Foxwedge and Rain Affair are on the second line of betting at $7.00, narrowly ahead of Bel Sprinter at $7.50. A big bet of $5000 each way Bel Sprinter was taken last week at $5.50, but he has had a little setback since a luckless run in the Oakleigh Plate. There has been a sprinkling of money for both Lone Rock ($11.00) and King’s Rose ($26.00 into $19.00), so there are differing opinions around as to which of the runners can win.

The Australian Cup is light on for runners with only 9 acceptors, but it is a classy field, dominated by ex-imports. Lucas Cranach has ousted Americain as favourite at $3.00, and that duo have been clearly best backed both before the final field and after. Manighar is on the next line at $7.00 just ahead of Illo ($7.50). The pace of the race will be a major concern, and the Tattsbet race bookmakers are tipping that both favourites can be beaten!

NOTABLE BETS

$30,200 at $1.04 Sri Lanka to beat Australia LIVE Game 2 Finals
$19,800 at $1.12 Sri Lanka to beat Australia LIVE Game 2 Finals

3x $4,000 at $1.50 Brisbane to beat North Queensland Round 2 NRL (now into $1.47)
$3,800 at $2.25 Cronulla to beat Newcastle Round 2 NRL (now into $2.20)