TattsBet News 29th March

AFL

The GWS were valiant in defeat against the Sydney Swans, and there were plenty of winners who helped themselves to the 87 points start at $1.90.The stand alone game was a big hit, and it was surprising how many also thought that GWS could provide a fairytale start to their careers, and they firmed from $15.00 into $11.00.

The rest of the opening round gets under way on Thursday night when Richmond take on Carlton. The Tigers have been a huge go in this game. Before the NAB Cup started, $3.40 was available for Richmond, but on the back of some good trial form, and poor form for Carlton, they began this week at $2.75. Even that was snapped up, and Richmond are now into 2.55 with the Blues out to 1.52.

It seems as though nobody thinks that Collingwood can beat Hawthorn at the MCG on Friday night. The Hawks have been the best backed side to win the flag ($7.00 into $4.50), and did open as the outsider in this game. Big money has arrived for Hawthorn this week, with bets of $13,500 coming for the line of -5.5 on Tuesday, along with win bets of $5000 and $3500 at 1.72. While all that has been going on, Collingwood have continued to drift out, and we have only seen a few hundred dollars for them to win.

Sometimes the opening round can be on the quiet side, but there have been several big bets early in the week. One client has placed $10,000 on Melbourne to win at 1.37, there has been a $10,000 bet for Adelaide to beat the Suns at 1.27, while another has had $8500 on St Kilda at 1.48.

Collingwood have also eased in premiership betting, now out to 4.00. Hawthorn (4.50), West Coast (15.00) and Adelaide (21.00) are the teams that have been targeted again this week, and if Hawthorn can beat Collingwood on Friday night, we may just have a new favourite.

RUGBY LEAGUE

After the money that was placed on the Wests Tigers to win this year’s title ($11.00 into $6.50), it is hard to believe the terrible start that they have got off to, and it may not get much better this week. The Tigers take on Souths on Sunday, and Souths opened as the $1.74 favourites on Wednesday morning. Later that day there was a mini run at Souths which saw the price come into $1.57, then another wave after that. There is only one name in the Tigers side who could change a market like that if he was out, so it was no surprise to learn that Benji Marshall is in doubt with concussion issues. However there are now stories floating around that he might still play, so the betting has gone back to $1.55 and $2.40. Now there is a real dilemma, if Marshall plays the Souths will be around $1.65, if he doesn’t, then they will be about $1.40.

Cronulla have proven to be the giant killers so far this year, and they go into Saturday night’s match against Penrith as outsiders again. The Panthers are $1.74 with the Sharks at $2.10, but there hasn’t been a lot of business in early trading. League fans treat the Melbourne Storm as a ‘free hit’ in their multis each week, and in the form they are in, it is hard to argue with. That trend is set to continue on Friday night when the Storm carry the hopes of punters at $1.40 against Newcastle. The Storm are now into $5.00 to win the title, but with every side below them having suffered a loss already this season, premiership betting has gone quiet.

RUGBY UNION

The Reds were thumped by the Bulls last week, and punters are treating them with great caution in Saturday night’s clash with the Western Force. The Reds injury toll has climbed again, and this is a real danger game. Tattsbet has opened the Reds as slight favourites at $1.80 with the Force at $2.00, and in the first 24 hours of trading, less that $100 has been placed on the defending champions!

The Chiefs are coming off a week’s break, and they are $1.53 to beat the Waratahs on Saturday. The Waratahs got past the Sharks in an entertaining,high scoring match last week, and we think this match might be a lot closer than the prices predict. The Chiefs have been in good form, but having that week off is a concern. They are now $7.50 equal third favourites to win the title at $7.50 along with the Reds. The Crusaders struggled to beat the Cheetahs last week but maintain favouritism at $3.75, but the Stormers ($6.50) are the side that has been flying under the radar with Australian punters. They play the Bulls on Saturday night, and while their unbeaten start to the season has seen some close wins over inferior opposition, a lot of questions will be answered after this match.

GOLF

Tiger Woods mania is back to some degree as we countdown to the US Masters. The Masters will be played Easter weekend, but it got a real good boost when Tiger was a runaway winner last week. All of a sudden after being unwanted in the Masters at $7.50, punters are now keen on Woods at $4.75. On his best form it is well over the odds, but is he back to his best? Rory McIlroy is now second pick at $6.25 ahead of Phil Mickelson ($12.00),Luke Donald ($15.00) and Lee Westwood at $17.00. The shortest of the Aussies are Adam Scott ($21.00) and Jason Day ($26.00), and both are popular with each way punters.

The PGA Tour event this week is the Houston Open. A lot of the big names are having the week off before the Masters, but Mickelson is a starter, and he always performs well the week before any of the Majors. He won this event last year, and is $12.00 co-favourite with Lee Westwood. Steve Stricker has been backed from $17.00 into $16.00, and there is also money for Keegan Bradley at $19.00. Aaron Baddeley is the shortest of the Aussies at $31.00, with John Senden at $41.00. There has been a sprinkling of support for Anthony Kim and Paul Casey, both at 81.00. Kim won this event in 2010 and Casey was victorious the year before.

In Europe, 18yo Matteo Mannessero is the $7.50 favourite to win the Sicilian Open, but punters have been betting against the youngster. South African Branden Grace already has a couple of wins in 2012, and he has been backed from $31.00 into $26.00, while Tom Lewis ($31.00), Raphael Jacquelin ($34.00) and Soren Kjeldson ($34.00) have all been specked.

NETBALL

The opening of the ANZ Championship season has been overlooked in the mainstream media with all the talk concentrating on football, but rest assured Tattsbet will have it all covered! Betting on all of the games will be available each Friday at 2pm, and as well as head to head markets, Tattsbet will be offering a line, totals and margin betting.

As far as the title is concerned, the Queensland Firebirds remain the top pick at $2.50, and while there has been activity at that price, it is obvious that many think the Firebirds are vulnerable. Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic are next in line at $5.50 followed by the Fever ($6.00) and the Mystics at $7.00. The significant mover has been the Adelaide Thunderbirds, now into $11.00 after opening at $15.00. The Thunderbirds were very impressive in a trial win over the Vixens at the weekend, and look like they will be in for a good season.

V8’s

The V8’s went around four times at the Australian Grand Prix weekend, but those races did not count towards season points. The real deal returns this weekend in Tasmania, with two races due to he held. The first of those will be on Saturday afternoon, and Jamie Whincup is the $2.75 favourite with Tattsbet. Ford dominated the races in Melbourne, but not a lot should be read into that as it was treated by many as a test run. The season opening races in Adelaide saw Whincup and Will Davison salute, and Davison is equal second elect with Mark Winterbottom ($6.00) to win race 1 in Tasmania. Garth Tander and Craig Lowndes occupy the next line of betting at $7.00. Top 3 betting is also available on each race, as well as best Ford and Holden finish, make of winning car, and the trifecta.

MOTOR BIKES

Casey Stoner continues to impress in testing, and has firmed up again to win the motoGP Championship. Stoner was $2.00 in original markets, but is now a warm $1.70 chance ahead of Jorge Lorenzo ($4.25), Dani Pedrosa ($5.50) and Valentino Rossi ($9.00). Pedrosa and Rossi have attracted some support at their current prices, but Stoner is the one wanted by his legion of supporters.

Round 2 of the Superbikes will be on this weekend in Imola, Italy. The first round was at Phillip Island over a month ago, and the two races were won by veterans Max Biaggi and Carlos Checa. That duo head the Championship betting now with Checa slight favourite at $2.50, with Biaggi at $2.75. Checa will be favourite to win race 1 in Italy, with Biaggi and Tom Sykes the main dangers.

FORMULA ONE

Fernando Alonso defied the critics to win the Malaysian Grand Prix last Sunday, but a few of his opponents have written the win off as a fluke and claim he cannot win the Driver’s Championship. Granted the win was in shocking conditions, but all and sundry know that the Ferrari’s are nowhere near their best yet, so that was definitely a bonus victory. Alonso is now on the fourth line of betting at $8.50, with Lewis Hamilton the favourite at $2.75, Jenson Button $3.25 and Sebastian Vettel at $3.70. Vettel has had an indifferent start to the season, and we are all waiting for them to get back to their best, or will they?

The Chinese GP is still a couple of weeks away, but betting is open on that event. Lewis Hamilton tops the betting at $3.00 ahead of Button ($3.50), Vettel ($4.75), Alonso ($8.00) and Mark Webber at $10.00.

RACING

All eyes will be on Rosehill Saturday to see how boom 2yo All Too Hard performs. All Too Hard is $1.45 to win the Pago Pago stakes, and whatever happens in this race will have a significant bearing on the Golden Slipper betting. There has been a lot of money for ATH this week to win the Slipper, and he is now a $6.00 chance behind Samaready. There has also been a $5000 double placed on him winning the Slipper into Americain to win the BMW for a payout just short of $100,000.

The Rosehill Guineas is an interesting race made even all that much harder with the addition of the best from New Zealand. The Kiwi’s supply the favourite here with Silent Achiever ($4.00), but there hasn’t been much interest at that price. Laser Hawk looks suited to the distance and is well in commission at $6.50, then another Kiwi in Ocean Park at $7.50. Ocean Park didn’t have much luck behind Mosheen two weeks ago, and wasn’t at home on the wet track, so expect an improved performance here. Strike the Stars and Said Com (both $9.50) have admirers as does Rock’N’Pop at $14.00. Our New Zealand correspondent claims that the $14.00 is well over the odds and that Rock’N’Pop is definitely capable of winning the Guineas.

NOTABLE BETS

$16,696 at $1.48 St Kilda to beat Port Adelaide Round 1 AFL (still $1.48)
$10,000 at $1.37 Melbourne to beat Brisbane Round 1 AFL (into $1.35)
$10,000 at $1.22 Adelaide to beat Gold Coast Round 1 AFL (still $1.22)
$13,500 at $1.85 Hawthorn -5.5 v Collingwood Round 1 AFL (now -6.5 $1.80)
$6,000 at $1.72 West Coast to beat Western Bulldogs Round 1 AFL (into$1.65)
$5,500 at $1.82 Melbourne/Adelaide Round 1 AFL Double
$5,000 at $1.70 Hawthorn to beat Collingwood Round 1 AFL (into $1.68)
$5,000 at $18.20 Double All To Hard (Slipper) into American (BMW)
$3,000 at $1.33 Carlton to beat Richmond (placed 12th January – now out to $1.52)