TattsBet News 1st March

RUGBY LEAGUE

After months of speculation on how good the Knights would be, and how bad the Dragons would be, betting on tonight’s game would suggest it could go either way. The Dragons have been backed from $2.45 into $2.35, however the Newcastle line of -3.5 is getting similar support, including one bet of $4000.

It is a fascinating opening round with only the Tigers shorter than $1.55, so if you are taking multis, and can find winners, big dividends await! There have been a few moves since betting opened a month ago, but the standout betting game is between the Warriors and Manly. The prices haven’t moved, with the Warriors at $1.65 and Manly at $2.25, but the line for NZ (-2.5) is now into $1.85 after a bet of $5000 arrived on Wednesday. Manly have lost Des Hasler, but many believe that Geoff Toovey can get the job done. It is extremely rare that Manly find themselves the outsiders, and many see that as value.

The Titans have been a mover ($2.70-$2.45) to beat the Cowboys, and there has been a good push for them with 5.5 points start. The Titans have some impressive signings this year, and their trial form was good, including a win over the Cowboys two weeks ago. They were terrible last year, but a win here would be a great kick start to the year. North Queensland fans think that not only will they win this week, but can go all of the way, as close to $8000 in the past month has seen their premiership odds cut from $15.00. The Tigers remain at the head of betting at $7.00, with Melbourne next in line at $8.00. Tattsbet will be betting live on all NRL games again this season.

SUPER RUGBY

Favourite followers didn’t fare so well in the first round of Super Rugby. Five of the seven won, but only three of those covered their lines, so it was a round that belonged to bookmakers. It could have been decidedly better if the Reds had not scored a miracle try to nose out the Waratahs. There were a lot of happy punters after that on as the Reds were the best backed side for the week, $2.25 into $1.75. Reds supporters may look back on that win as season defining in what looks to be a tough competition, and they are now into $4.50 second favourites behind the Crusaders ($3.35) who were also a little fortunate to beat the Blues. The Chiefs were one of the longer priced teams that were backed to win this year’s title ($21.00 into 1$3.00), but were very ordinary when they went down 23-19 to the Highlanders.

The Chiefs are at home again this week when they host the Blues. Tattsbet are giving the Chiefs another chance at the odds they are, and there has been ample support for the Blues to win at $1.53, and even more so conceding 4 points start.

The Rebels will be without Kurtley Beale in their first match for the season, but they still have a reasonable side on paper. They take on the Waratahs in Melbourne, and the Waratahs would still be in a state of shock after what happened to them last week. The Rebels didn’t win a trial game, but on what they showed last year, and with new signings, we rate them a strong chance of at least staying within the line of 5.5 points. Punters disagree as it has been nearly all one way traffic for the Waratahs conceding that start.

The Reds are the shortest priced favourite of the round, and they should really chalk up a win against the Western Force, but can they win by 13 or more? That is the line that has been set, but punters are treading very cautiously. The Force went down narrowly to the Brumbies last week in a gritty performance, and it was hard to work out form the Reds performance whether or not they have a lot of points in them.

AFL

The completion of the first round of NAB Cup games saw another few upsets, with Port defeating Carlton being the best result of those. Bigger punters prefer to keep out of these games, but there two bets of $5000 for the Blues at $1.45. The West Coast now find themselves $3.00 favourites to win the Cup ahead of Collingwood ($4.00), Hawthorn ($4.50) and Geelong at $5.25.

Tattsbet has opened a handicap market on the Brownlow Medal, and that has certainly created some interest. The scratchmarker is Brownlow favourite Dane Swan, with Lions champ Simon Black the frontmarker with 10 votes start. Please note it is only a field of 20 names, and ineligible players to win the Brownlow can still win the handicap. Perennial vote getters Gary Ablett and Sam Mitchell (+3 and +4 respectively) have been the most popular in early trading.

V8’s

The V8 season begins this week in Adelaide with the running of the Clipsal 500. There will be two events, one on Saturday and the second on Sunday, and that race will open at the completion of Saturday’s race. Jamie Whincup is always the favourite in the early part of the season, but there has been a distinct lack of confidence shown in him this week. After opening at $2.25, Whincup is now out to $2.35, but has hardly attracted any support. Garth Tander ($6.00) and Craig Lowndes ($8.00-$7.00) have been best supported to beat Whincup, and there has been specking at longer odds for David Reynolds and Rick Kelly, both now $26.00 after opening at $34.00.Title betting has Whincup favourite at $2.50 ahead of Lowndes at $3.00, then a decent gap to Tander along with Mark Winterbottom on the $9.00 line.

MOTO GP

The motoGP season is approaching fast, and Casey Stoner has been burning up the tracks again in Sepang this week. Punters haven’t missed that news as Stoner is in to $1.87 from $2.00, but there has also been support for his Honda team mate Dani Pedrosa at $4.75. Splitting that pair is Jorge Lorenzo ($3.75) who has also impressed this week after a torrid run with injuries last season.

HARNESS RACING

Im Themightyquinn has been favourite to win this year’s Inter Dominion since betting opened, and nothing has changed since the final field and barrier draw were conducted. After the draw,the favourite opened at $2.20, but is now into $2.10, and the support doesn’t look like stopping, including one bet of $7000 at $2.10. The WA champ is right at home around the tight Perth track, but he won’t have it all his own way. Smoken Up is second elect at $3.40, but surprisingly punters are steering clear of him even though he is unbeaten in the series. Mr Feelgood has drawn perfectly in barrier 1, and that brings him right into the race. He is also a firmer, into $4.60 after being $5.00 earlier in the week. Auckland Reactor has come back from injury to also go through the series unbeaten, and is extremely popular with each way punters at $10.00.

RACING

On face value Helmet was disappointing first up at Flemington, and for that reason punters haven’t exactly rushed to back him in this Saturday’s Australian Guineas. We all know he is better than that, and the 1600m suits better than last start, but there have been a few backed to win this race at longer odds. That’s The One was the winner of Helmet’s race, and punters have found the $8.00 appealing, along with Proliferate ($10-$8.50),Decircles ($15.00) and Strike The Stars, into $19.00 from $26.00.

The Newmarket controversy surrounding the weight allocated to Hay List, and whether he would start, has seen a lot of moves in the market. Now that he is in the field, Hay List is the $3.00 favourite ahead of Bel Sprinter ($5.50), Rain Affair ($7.00) and Foxwedge ($7.50). Bel Affair has attracted bets of $1000 to win and $5000 to run a place, Rain Affair has been solid at $7.00, last week’s winner Woorim has been backed to win $20000 at $13.00, while another Queenslander in Temple of Boom as had bets of $1000 and $500 placed on him at $17.00. This is an intriguing race that does appear to have a host of chances.

NOTABLE BETS

Four-Leg Multi with one leg remaining (Mr Feelgood in Friday night’s Inter Dominion Pacers Final)

$3 at 9500/1 to win $28,509

1 - Solebid ($26.00) QR04 on 29th January
2 - New York Giants ($2.15) NFL Superbowl
3 - Samaready ($17.00) Blue Diamond
4 - Mr Feelgood ($10.00 now $4.80) Inter Dominion Pacers Final (Friday night)