TattsBet News 9th February

SUPERBOWL

We had previously mentioned how well backed the New York Giants had been to win the Superbowl once the two finalists were known, but things levelled out prior to kick-off, and the Giants winning ended up as a handy result. The opening $2.35 disappeared quickly, but on game day the Giants were $2.20 as the New England Patriots were backed from $1.75 into $1.65. It was interesting that when the Giants led 9-0 they were still at $1.80, but live traders preferred the Pats at $2.00. That trend continued once the Pats hit the front, and there were very few bets struck for the Giants in the run until they actually hit the front near full time.

The first scoring play market had punters cheering as there were any amount of bets on ‘safety-either side’ at $81.00. Fortunately the biggest of those was only $25, but there were lots and lots of winners as the Giants went to a 2-0 lead.

The teams had barely left the field and the Tattsbet bookmakers had next year’s market up. New Orleans (where final will be played), New England and Green Bay head the betting at $7.00, with the Packers the best backed of those. There have also been bets for Philadelphia ($13.00), Baltimore ($15.00) and San Diego at $31.00, but all have been small.

CRICKET

The third match in the ODI series will be played in Perth on Friday afternoon, and punters have left little doubts as to who they think will win this one. After Sri Lanka were beaten by India on Wednesday night, the Tattsbet opening market on the third game was Australia $1.40 and Sri Lanka at $3.00. Within minutes the price for an Aussie win was crunched into $1.38, and the signs are there that even that price may disappear. It is very short for a ODI where two competitive sides are playing, but it looks as though many concede that the pitch conditions in Perth will suit the Australian pacemen. Dave Warner heads the Australian high bat at $4.00, but punters at the moment prefer Matthew Wade ($4.50) and Ricky Ponting at $5.00.

Series betting is quiet, with Australia now $1.40 ahead of India at $3.50, and Sri Lanka way out to $10.00 after their first loss.

RUGBY LEAGUE

The NRL All Stars were far too good for the Indigenous All Stars last Saturday night. Pre match, it was all one sided action for the Indigenous team who were backed from $2.25 into $1.60. It was a fantastic betting game that saw a big increase on the previous year, even though bigger punters seemed to steer clear of the game. A few eagle eyed NRL All Stars supporters cashed in on half time betting when Tattsbet was giving $5.00 for an NRL win. The largest of those bets was $1500, and the NRL side started the second half at $4.20, but their victory was still a good result thanks to the heavy support for the Indigenous All Stars for well over a week.

There were a lot of trials on over the weekend as well, and some of those results have sparked interest in most of the futures markets. The West Tigers remain title favourites at $8.50, but there has been another push for the Broncos at $9.00, the Bulldogs ($13.00 into $11.00) and Cronulla ($26.00 into $21.00). The Sharks is an interesting move as it is all on the back of Todd Carney and his two tries. It can prove to be very dangerous putting too much emphasis on trial games, but not only have the Sharks been backed in most of the futures options, but the odds for Carney have halved ($34.00 into $17.00) to win the Dally M.

AFL

Collingwood are a firmer in flag betting this week. The Pies are now $3.75 after spending several weeks at $4.00, but consistent support has seen the price come in. Geelong remain on the second line of betting at $5.00 ahead of Hawthorn ($5.50), and we are also beginning to see Hawks fans get behind their side. While Collingwood are $2.65 to win the minor premiership, the Hawks have also been backed ($5.50) to top the table at the end of the home and away season.

A market that always creates a lot of interest is the minor premiership handicap market, and it is no different this year. Each side is given a handicap (eg Carlton +8) which is added to their total points at the end of the season proper. More often than not it is the outsiders that get the early support, and that is what we have seen to date with Adelaide (+20), Essendon (+20) and Sydney (+20) being the teams that have been targeted in the first week of betting.

GOLF

The AT&T National Pro-Am gets under way at Pebble Beach on Thursday night, and a return to form by Tiger Woods will see him go in as $6.50 favourite. This will be Tiger’s first PGA event for the year, and a return to where he won the 2000 US Open. Gone are the days of Tiger being backed to the exclusion of all others, but there has been enough interest shown at the $6.50 to suggest that punters think he can win after returning from the UAE. It is worth noting that this event will be played over three courses, but each appears to be a tough course. This event each year is dominated by those who perform well on a regular basis, and that would explain interest in Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson at $19.00. The shortest of the Australian contingent are Aaron Baddeley and Geoff Ogilvy at $51.00, with Ogilvy being the more popular of the two. There are plenty of options available including winner, top 5, top 10, and top 25 markets.

CYCLING

Cycling has been in the news again this week for all the wrong reasons, and the suspension of Alberto Contador has seen a major reshuffle to this year’s Tour de France. Last year’s winner Cadel Evans is $2.55 to make it back to back wins, and he heads the betting ahead of Andy Schleck at $4.00, then Bradley Wiggins ($5.50) and Denis Menchov at $8.00.

There has been a lot of queries as to what happens with the disqualification of Contador from the 2010 race. Contador was the winner, but now the history books will show Andy Schleck as the victor after finishing second. This can happen in any number of sports (athletics being one), so for betting purposes, sports events need a ‘correct weight’, just like racing. So, the rules are pretty clear now, a game of any sport is over once the players leave the field of play, and an events like cycling, athletics, car racing etc are paid out upon either a medal or podium presentation. That means that those who backed Contador as favourite to win in 2010 get to hang on to their cash!

RACING

The Black Caviar juggernaut is set to continue at Caulfield on Saturday, and while it is the mighty mare’s first run beyond 1200 metres, Tattsbet bookmakers think she will chalk up win number 18. However, there are a few punters out there with a different view as there has been really good interest in last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed to provide a massive surprise. Southern Speed opened at $15.00 and is now $14.00, while Black Caviar is 1.04. We are expecting the bigger punters to chime in on Saturday which is what happened last time she raced (led up by a bet of 66k at $1.04). Last time she raced we mentioned how many bets around the $5 mark were placed on her, and the same thing is happening again. It seems as though people just want to say that they backed the best sprinter this country has ever seen. The is also huge interest in Black Caviar coupled up with most of the sporting events over the weekend, most thinking that the $1.04 just adds a little more to their ticket! After 17 wins in a row, that is hard to argue with.

The time honoured Doncaster Handicap is still over two months away, but there has been a lot of activity in the market over the past week. There has been a lot of talk about whether or not race favourite Atlantic Jewel will tackle the Doncaster or the Oaks. One punter is of the view she will be in the Doncaster as he placed $4000 each way on her to win the handicap at $6.00. That price has now firmed to $5.50. Manawanui had a terrific last preparation before failing in the Derby at Flemington, but has been well supported at $10.00, as has Secret Admirer ($16.00), More Joyous ($21.00) and Said Com at $51.00. One that we are keeping a close eye on is Moment of Change, another of a really good young crop of horses coming through to challenge the established stars. Moment of Change is currently a $19.00 chance, on the same line as Mosheen. Another who could be a sharp improver this preparation is Shoot Out, now trained in Sydney by Chris Waller. Shoot Out is currently at $21.00, and would be ideally suited in a race of this type.

NOTABLE BETS

$2000 at $2.50 Brisbane Broncos top Queensland Team in NRL (now into $1.85)
$700 at $13.00 Burleigh Bears to win Queensland Cup (now into $8.00)