TattsBet News 8th November

CRICKET 

Australia has had a stranglehold on cricket tests played at the GABBA but you wouldn’t know that looking at the betting ledger for the first test against South Africa. After opening at $2.60, the South Africans have attracted two thirds of the business in a big betting match, and are in to $2.30 with less than 24 hours to go before the start. Australia have eased from $2.60 out to $2.75, while the draw is another drifter, out to $3.60 after opening at $3.15. The last time that Australia lost at the GABBA was back in 1988 against the West Indies, but they have often played the lower ranked test sides there. South Africa are the current number one side in the world, but the only lead up match they have had was on a flat deck at the SCG in a thee day match. On paper there isn’t a lot between the two line-ups, and with the chance of some showers on Friday a draw looks a realistic chance even though there has been only one in the last eight tests held there. It is interesting to note that a decade ago most draws in Australia were around $2.50 without weather being a factor, but since the advent of Twenty/20 cricket, the mentality of modern day players and teams has meant there is usually a result. There will be betting available throughout the test with TattsBet.

The betting to win the series has taken a similar path to the first test with all of the money for South Africa. After opening at $2.50 equal favourites with Australia, South Africa are now into $2.10, including one bet of $5000 at the $2.50. The amazing thing surrounding the series betting is that less than $100 has been placed on Australia in the three weeks that the book has been opened! The batting and bowling markets have created a lot of interest with Hashim Amla and Michael Clarke (both $7.00) bets backed with the bat, while Dale Steyn ($5.00) and Morne Morkel ($9.00) have been the one’s in the bowling market. James Pattinson is the shortest of the Aussie bowlers, but punters prefer to be on the South Africans. 

RUGBY UNION 

The International rugby season in the Northern Hemisphere gets under way this weekend, and the Wallabies will be in Paris to take on France. We are all aware of the dramas that have surrounded the Wallabies over the past few months, both on and off the field, but a look back over the records reveals that the Wallabies might be good things! France had a disappointing Six Nations, only beating Scotland and Italy, but they have only won 3 of their last 13 against Australia, as well as losing the last 5 ( two in Paris ). The French have also named what appears to be an under-manned side, so we are happy to take them on at $1.67. The Wallabies are $2.20, and the line is 2.5 start.

Ireland are at home to South Africa on Saturday night as well, and although they had a disappointing tour of New Zealand, there is always some doubt over the Springboks when they travel as well. Punters have been cautious with this game, with some interest shown in South Africa to win at $1.56 and also at the line of -3.5, but certainly nothing like we expected. 

RACING

The Melbourne Cup is over for another year, and although Green Moon was always in the betting after the initial markets were posted, he was a good result for TattsBet. Green Moon was a $15 chance in the first markets released, got in to $11 after he won the Turnbull, but eased out to around the $20 mark after failing in the Cox Plate. There was support for Green Moon at that quote, but nothing like others around him at a similar price. Ironically it was a similar form line to Efficient when he won the Cup-he also failed in the Cox Plate, and all credit must go to ‘Team Williams’ for getting the Green Moon over the line. There have been a lot of ‘feel good’ stories come out in the aftermath of the big race with people having big wins from small amounts, and one of those that must rank highly is a Tatts client who started the day with 30 cents in his account. This person deposited $50, and spent it on a first four in the Cup, taking a fractional ticket for 40%. After correctly predicting the first four home, his balance shot up to in excess of $445,000, a life changing figure for a small outlay. Another punter had a big win as well with a fixed odds multi. He took a 5 leg fixed odds horse multi (starting with the Manikato Stakes) that ended with Green Moon in the Cup. Outlay $10-collect $65,000, great tipping and punting. 

GOLF

If facts and figures count for anything, Adam Scott should win this week’s Singapore Open.

Scott has won this event three times before, in 2005, 2006 and 2010, so is clearly at home on the Sentosa course. The Australian opened at $7.50 behind Rory McIlroy ($5.50), but the bulk of the money has been for Scott, and also Phil Mickelson at $11. McIlroy has played here before, finishing fourth to Jeev Singh in 2008, while Mickelson showed last week that he is still capable of mixing it with the best. Apart from that trio, there has been money for Padraig Harrington ($26) and George Coetzee, while Scott is a red hot $1.42 chance to be the Top Aussie.

The CMNH Classic is the last official event of the PGA season, and several Aussies will be desperate to get their tour card for next year. Many are on the fringe, with the most notable of those being Rod Pampling, a $126 chance this week. Brendan De Jonge and Robert Garrigus are the $15 equal favourites, ahead of Jonas Blixt ($19) and Henrik Stenson at $26. Two courses will be used (Magnolia and Palm) at the Walt Disney Resort in Florida, but as we said, it is an important event for the majority of the field. Garrigus won here in 2010, but punters have shown a preference for De Jonge.

The Australian Masters is on next week, and Adam Scott heads that market at $5.00 ahead of Ian Poulter at $5.25. Graeme McDowell is next in line at $9.00, then Stuart Appleby ($15) and Robert Allenby ($17). This year’s Masters does lack a bit of depth, but Poulter, and possibly Scott, will be coming to Kingston Heath in good form. 

MOTOGP

Valencia will be the venue for the last motoGP race of the season, and the last GP race in the career of Casey Stoner. With Jorge Lorenzo wrapping up the title when finishing second to Stoner at Phillip Island, this race would normally not grab too many headlines, but it will now as a result of being Stoner’s finale. He was dominant when winning in Australia, and will be focussed on going out a winner. The opening quote of $2.25 has proven popular, but there is also solid support for Lorenzo at $2.75, even though the title is already his. Dani Pedrosa ($3.00) is the only other rider under $34, and given this trio have won every race for the year between them, it would be a major upset if it didn’t happen again. All three have form in Valencia as well, with Stoner the winner last year and in 2008, Pedrosa in 2007 and 2009, while Lorenzo won in 2010. All things point towards Casey going out as a winner, if he can qualify fastest he is assured of being a very warm public elect on Sunday. 

FORMULA 1 

Sebastian Vettel did a fantastic job to come from 24 on the grid to finish third in last week’s Abu Dhabi GP, and with Fernando Alonso finishing ahead of him in second place, the Drivers’ Championship is still alive with two races to go. Vettel is now $1.20 with Alonso at $4.20, leading by 10 points. Kimi Raikkonen won his first race since 2009, but did have two years out of F1, and there was money for him at $26. Lewis Hamilton started one of the shortest priced fav’s of the season at $1.42 ahead of Mark Webber at $3.75, but both were out of the race before the end of the second lap. Betting is up on the next race in the USA where Vettel is $2.20 ahead of Hamilton at $3.00, Alonso at $6.00 and Webber at $9.00.

NASCAR

Jimmie Johnson won his fifth race of the year when he won the AAA Texas 500 last weekend, and that win has seen him open up a 7 point lead in the title with two races to go. Johnson started the $5.50 favourite and defeated Brad Keselowski, and Johnson is now $1.37 to win the title ahead of Keselowski ($2.85) who is in second position.

This week the AdvoCare 500 will be run in Phoenix, and with Johnson a winner here in 2007,08 and 09, he has a chance to wrap it all up with a win. The opening quote of $4.50 has been taken by a couple of early shoppers, but there has also been interest shown in Denny Hamlin at $8.00 as well as Keselowski at $5.50. If there is to be an upset, it could be provided by Kevin Harvick who has won on this circuit several times, and he was also runner-up to Hamlin in the first race held here earlier in the season. 

HARNESS RACING 

The field has been finalized for the New Zealand Trotting Cup which will be run at Addington next Tuesday. Terror To Love has been all of the talk since betting first opened, and now that Terror To Love has drawn perfectly in barrier 3, TattsBet has installed the Kiwi at $2.10. Sushi Sushi impressed when winning the Kaikoura Cup at his last start, and hasn’t drawn too badly in barrier 5. His Aussie fans have been keen on the $7.00 currently on offer, but surprisingly there hasn’t been a lot of interest in Caribbean Blaster ($6.50) who also looks suited drawn in barrier 2. Caribbean Blaster was narrowly beaten by Bitobliss in the Kilmore Cup at his last start, but the way the draw has panned out he should get a good run. There has been specking for Mah Sish ($21 into $14) along with Franco Cullen at $12, but Auckland Reactor, who has been plagued with injuries, has blown out to $18 after drawing outside of the second row. 

GREYHOUNDS

TattsBet have been covering the Group Races on the greyhounds recently, and there are a couple of big ones to come this week. The Macro Meats Shootout will be held at Sandown on Thursday night, and although this race is restricted to a field of four, and of the four could win. The Jason Thompson pair of Proven Nitro and Don’t Knocka Him head the betting at $2.90 ahead of Heston Bale at $3.85 and Odie For Now at $3.90.All four are worthy of a place in the field, but Proven Nitro gets the nod after a staggering performance to win the Vic Peters Final at Wentworth Park last Saturday night. The Geelong Cup will be run on Friday night, and TattsBet will have the market for that race available on Friday morning after the scratching’s have been announced.