John Harms Perth Predictions

Well, punters, the draw was never in doubt in that wonderful Adelaide Test, and Michael Clarke batted beautifully to get the value bet home as well, so we’ve got a bit of the TattsBet folding to go on with.

There’s plenty we could do with the dividend but, flicking through the 15 or so TattsBet markets on the Test in Perth, one market really caught my eye. Now that Shane Watson is back in the side it would be irresponsible not to have a ping at Australia to suffer the most run outs over the course of the match. S. Watson is a specialist. Spending much of his batting time in Watto-world, the hard-hitting Queenslander will give you a good sight. Many a photographer has captured him trying to hide behind an umpire or a visiting short leg fieldsman, working hard not to look at his partner as the unfortunate victim trudges off into the distance. He bats high in the order so he can cut a swathe through the whole list. And Australia is $3.40 to secure the honour.

Michael Clarke just looks brilliant at the moment and will be in the mix again for highest run-scorer of the Australian innings. His bat is wide. He’s picking the length so well, although he was afforded the luxury of a benign Adelaide pitch. From pretty much the moment he walked in he got that left foot out and played on the rise. Perth will be different: there will be more deliveries which have a chance of getting the batsmen out. And that chance could be telling. Clarke’s still the one at $4.00, but I suggest the Huss is good value at $5.50.

As for what happens in the match? The teams are so evenly matched. The weather looks like being a little unsettled for Friday and maybe part of Saturday. Who makes the final elevens matters. The Australians have to decide on how many quicks and which ones they are. It would be nice to see Nathan Lyon play but he might get a hammering in the first dig. The South Africans have a few injuries as well. But I reckon it might come down to which bowlers have the most tricks: who can get the ball to move about the most. I’d have to go with South Africa on that, the all-round repertoire of Steyn and the bounce and seam from Morne Morkel.

This is a tough one. I might do it this way: wait until the toss before having my bet, and then I’ll back the side that’s bowling first. A few wickets will fall and then I’ll reassess. I am confident of one thing: that this Test will not finish in a draw, mainly because Australia will chase a result as they really do want to take top spot from the South Africans.

Michael Clarke has had a big summer already and this Test is going to be a test of his batting prowess, and an even bigger test of him as a captain.

Beautifully set up, this should be a ripper.

Value: Australia to suffer the most run outs