TattsBet News 22nd November

CRICKET

The second cricket test in Adelaide between Australia and South Africa takes on added importance after the first test was a draw. With this series being a ‘best of three’, it will be crucial to get a win in Adelaide before the third test in Perth. History shows us that the quicks for South Africa will be right at home in Perth, so the Aussies will be keen for victory this week. The draw is the favourite to win the Adelaide test, and has firmed from $2.70 into $2.55. The stats say that it is a risky proposition as only 3 of the last 21 tests there have ended in a draw, but the talk this week is that it will be a good batting track. Australia and South Africa are each $2.95, and bets have been rolling in for both sides at that price. The betting is in complete contrast to the first test where most of the pre-match money was for South Africa, but it appears as though punters were impressed with Australia’s performance at the GABBA.

TattsBet will be betting LIVE throughout the Adelaide test, and will also have updated markets available at each break on the India v England test which starts on Friday. India are $2.00 after humbling England in the first test, the draw is $2.60, and England are $5.50. 


RUGBY UNION 

The Wallabies staged a decent form reversal to beat England last week, and on that form they should receive another confidence boost when they take on Italy this week. Australia had support last week, but the bigger money was all for England who firmed from an opening $1.42 into $1.35. The Wallabies got to $3.20, and received a 6.5 point start on the line, and it was an important win as it has them back on track for a top 4 ranking with the 2015 World Cup draw only a matter of weeks away.

Italy were thumped 42-10 by New Zealand last week, and have opened at $6.00 to beat Australia, with the line set at 13.5. The early money has been for Australia to win ($1.12) through multies, as well as conceding the handicap start, so punters clearly think they will continue on from last week.

There are half a dozen rugby Internationals this week, and the standout is England v South Africa. England would have been stunned by the loss to Australia last week, but South Africa didn’t have it all their own way when they defeated Scotland 21-10. The betting has opened with both sides at $1.90, and it really is a toss of the coin match. The last time the pair met was in June at Port Elizabeth, and that ended in a 14 all draw after the Springboks won the first two matches in a three test series. The last meeting at Twickenham also resulted in a win to South Africa 21-11 but that was in 2010. It will be an interesting match between two sides who employ completely different tactics. 


RUGBY LEAGUE 

Rugby League has been in the news this week with the banishment of the shoulder charge and also the announcement surrounding next year’s State Of Origin series. The first doesn’t affect any betting in any way, but the second definitely does. The ARL have given New South Wales 2 matches at home next year, and that is out of sequence, so that has forced a major reshuffle of the betting. Prior to that, NSW were $2.30, and had eased out from $2.20 after Israel Folau decided to come back to league, therefore making him eligible for QLD. Having 2 games in Sydney is obviously an advantage, and now NSW and QLD are the equal favourites at $1.90.


GOLF

Adam Scott finally won an Australian Masters last week, and while he was doing that at Kingston Heath, Miguel-Angel Jiminez became the oldest winner on the European Tour when he took out the Hong Kong Open. As we pointed out last week, Jiminez had won the HK Open twice before, and upstaged a pretty handy field in doing so. While he was a $41 chance before the tournament started, Scott was the $4.00 favourite to win the Masters, just ahead of Ian Poulter ($4.25) and Graeme McDowell at $8.00. All three were heavily backed by punters, more so Scott and Poulter who both firmed from an opening $5.00. Both were always in contention, and although Poulter entered the last round one shot ahead of Scott (and the fav at $1.70), it was the popular Queenslander who prevailed, much to the delight of punters.

This week the Australasian Tour moves to Clearwater Resort in Christchurch for the running of the NZ Open, and with nearly all of the big names missing, it looks like being a quiet event. Mark Brown and Michael Hendry are the $9.00 equal favourites, and both played well to finish just behind Scott and Poulter last week. NZ compatriot Gareth Paddison tied for third with Brown last week, and has attracted some support at $17. Aaron Crawford was another who caught the eye last week posting the best final round, and looks a strong chance at $19. The past few years the NZ Open has been a co-sanctioned event with the Nationwide Tour, and with this week’s event made up mostly of NZer's and Australians, there is big chance that the winner will be a local, the first time since Mahal Pearce in 2003.

Rory McIlroy had a shocker in Hong Kong last week, but the World Number 1 is the $7.00 favourite to bounce back in the World Tour Championship this week in Dubai. The field is limited to 57 starters, and while he let supporters down last week after complaining of fatigue, many have come back again at the bigger odds. McIlroy has reasonable form in this event, a third in 2009, fifth in 2010 before finishing eleventh last year, but his best form this year has been outstanding, although his comments after Hong Kong have been enough for TattsBet to 'risk'him this week. Luke Donald won the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan last week, and he is second pick a $10 ahead of Louis Oosthuizen at $11. Ian Poulter was mentioned earlier, and is nobody could argue with his recent form, and has been backed at $14. Poulter was runner-up here to Robert Karlsson two years ago, and is in career best form. Lee Westwood won in 2009, and is another who is always popular with punters. There has been a sprinkling of money for George Coetzee at $34, and he is another who must be rated highly in the winning chances. Coetzee finished second to Henrik Stenson in the SA Open last week, but has good form in the desert with a sixth in Abu Dhabi and a fifth in the Dubai Desert Classic this year. 


FORMULA 1 

There are a few different permutations that will be a factor in deciding who wins this year's Driver's Championship, but leading into the final race in Brazil this week it is Sebastian Vettel who holds all of the aces. Vettel is 13 points ahead of Fernando Alonso, and is now $1.15 to win the title with Alonso at $5.00. Alonso needs to win this week and Vettel would need to finish further back than fourth, so while Alonso will be going 'áll out'to get the necessary points, Vettel will more than like adopt cautious tactics. The Red Bulls had a problem last week with the gear-box again, and that only adds to the mystery of this final race.

The alternator issue brought about the demise of Vettel in the USA GP last week, and that race went to Lewis Hamilton, who started the second favourite at $3.50 behind Vettel who was $1.45. This week Vettel has opened at $2.50, and with punters not sure what sort of tactics he will adopt, there have been very few takers at that price. The return to form of Hamilton has seen him quite popular at $3.50, along with Alonso at $4.50. Jenson Button is next in line at $9.00, and he is followed by Mark Webber at $12. Webber was force to retire in Austin, but he does represent big value this week. While Vettel won this race in 2010, Webber was runner-up that year, and also won in 2009 and 2011. No doubt he will be in the race to assist in any way he can to get Vettel the Championship, given his form at the track, he must be a strong winning hope. Another thing worth noting this week is that several of the cars will be testing new tyres with a view to next season, and that will lessen the likelihood of a huge upset.


V8 SUPERCARS

Jamie Whincup wrapped up the V8 Supercar title at the weekend, and while there is still one round to go in Sydney in two weeks’ time, it will be interesting to see how teams will handle that final meeting. Sydney will have two races of 250km's, and like many of the F1 teams, it will be a good opportunity to test for next season.

Whincup was hotly pressed for favouritism in race 1 at Winton last weekend, but was again far to fast. He started the race at $2.30 along with Mark Winterbottom who qualified fastest, but Whincup jumped him at the start and he went on to defeat Craig Lowndes and Lee Holdsworth. In race 2 on Sunday, Whincup went in as the $2.05 favourite ahead of Winterbottom ($3.50), but had to be content with third place behind Lowndes who started at $6.50. Betting for the Sydney event will open on Friday of this week.


GREYHOUNDS

The Melbourne Cup for greyhounds will be conducted at Sandown on Thursday night, and a Queenslander is favourite to take out the richest greyhound race in the world.

Glen Gallon has been installed the $3.60 favourite after drawing box 1, but this Cup is the most open in history. Glen Gallon failed from the same box in the recent Topgun at the Meadows, but he did run the fastest time in the heats. Victorian trainer Jason Thompson has three runners, and they have all drawn beside each other in 2,3 and 4. Two of those runners, Got A Moment ($8.00) and Don’t Knocka Him ($4.00) also come from Queesnland, but have been sent south for the feature races. Thompson’s other runner, Proven Nitro ($6.00) has won two Group races recently, but is awkwardly drawn in box 4. There is little separating the entire field on their best times, and for that reason Desalle Bale ($11.00-$9.000 could prove hard to beat as she looks the leader.

Perth champion Miata also runs on the same programme, pitted against Jethro in the ‘Bold Trease’ over the long 715 metre journey. Both were impressive heat winners, and Miata opened at $1.67 after the box draw. While she is the current track record holder, there is a chance that Miata could be caught up in early traffic, and that opens the race up. Jethro ($3.20) got tired in his heat, but it is worth noting that he was a very unlucky third to Miata in the National Distance Final a couple of months ago.


RACING

With the Spring Carnival over, the focus of racing enthusiasts moves west this weekend. The unbeaten Barakey faces his biggest assignment to date in the Winterbottom Stakes, and while he has been solid in the betting at $2.75, there have been a couple backed to beat him. Travinator opened at $6.50, and attracted three separate bets of $1000 at that price, and has continued to be backed all the way down to $5.00. The Gai Waterhouse trained Hallowell Belle had a successful Flemington Carnival and has admirers at $4.50 as does Pinwheel ($8.00), who always runs an honest race.

Luckygray failed in his Melbourne campaign earlier in the year but returned with an emphatic win in Perth 2 weeks ago, and is the $3.20 favourite to win the Railway Stakes. Ranger is another of the local hopes backed as soon as the betting opened, and is on the second line at $6.50, but the best backed in the early market has been Fat Al. After opening at $9.00, Fat Al was quickly backed in to $8.00, and it looks like he might shorten further. Gai Waterhouse campaigned Fat Al in Melbourne after he won the Epsom Handicap in October, and if he gets his own way in front he could prove very hard to run down. The Victorian Yosei has admirers at $16 but will have to do it the hard way coming from the back of the field.


TattsBet will also be offering fixed odds on the Sunday’s Japan Cup.