TattsBet News 25th October
By Gerard Daffy
- October 25, 2012 4:14PM
While the Wallabies didn’t come away with a win against the All Blacks in Brisbane last Saturday night, the 18-18 all draw will give them some confidence with the Northern Hemisphere matches coming up in a few weeks’ time.
While Australia were $5.50 to beat New Zealand, there was plenty of money for them to win, but surprisingly there wasn’t a lot of support for them with 13.5 point start. That particular line was where All Black fans pinned their faith, with a bet of $20,000 placed at $1.83 following on from several $5000 bets at $1.90. Those punters were never really in the fight, but those who backed the Wallabies to win at the head to head price at least were able to salvage something after Dan Carter’s kick for goal narrowly missed. The draw option was $34, and there were a handful of bets at that quote including two of $50. The other bet type that has been spoken about after the games was the ‘no try’ option in the first try scorer market. For the record it was also $34, and again TattsBet took a few small bets. With the All Blacks so short to win the game, it appears most thought that they would be scoring tries aplenty!
This weekend we will have the two ITM Cup finals in New Zealand, and TattsBet will bet LIVE throughout both. Counties Manukau host Otago on Friday night, and go in as $1.40 pops to win, with the line set at -6.0. This pair met back in round 7 with Counties thumping Otago 43-12. In the premiership final, Canterbury made their way into the final in bizarre circumstances last week. Their match against Taranaki ended 27 all at the end of normal time, but they went on to win 51-27 after extra time, hence covering the massive 17.5 point line. Canterbury are $1.25 to beat Auckland this week, with the line set at 9.0 points.
The semi-finals and the final of the Champions League T/20 will be played out over the next few days, and the unbeaten Sydney Sixers must be a real chance of winning the major spoils. The Sixers will have to try and get the job done without Shane Watson, but are $1.55 to beat the Titans on Friday night, and second choice at $2.85 to win the final behind Delhi who are $2.50 favourites. Delhi play Highveld on Thursday night and are warm $1.50 favourites in that game with Highveld at $2.60.
The first test between Australia and South Africa is still a few weeks away, but the betting to win the series is open. The Aussies and South Africa have opened at $2.50 each of two, and the drawn series is $3.50. The early trend has been towards South Africa at the $2.50, and that has continued into the ‘Series Correct Score’ market where there has been support for South Africa to win 1-0 at $9.00 and for them to win 2-1 at $6.00. The series batting and bowling markets will open next week.
Both of the USA and European Tours will be in action in Asia this week, so both events will get under way early on Thursday.
The BMW Shanghai Masters is now part of the European Tour, and Rory McIlroy is back to defend his title after winning last year at the same course. Nearly half of the money wagered on the BMW this week has been for McIlroy and he has firmed from $5.75 into $5.50. Last year Rory defeated Anthony Kim in a playoff, and while Kim will be missing from this year’s event, it is a terrific field. Justin Rose is second elect at $10, then follows Luke Donald ($11) and Lee Westwood ($12), so we have three of the top four in the world starting. Westwood has met with support and that is understandable as he has recorded 10 wins in Asia, so clearly handles the humid conditions. Others who have had some backing include Ian Poulter ($26), Graeme McDowall ($34) and Charl Schwartzel ($41) who failed dismally in Perth last week.
The US Tour event is the CIMB Classic, and this will be played in Kuala Lumpur at The Mines Resort. This is a unique event as the field is limited to 48 starters, 30 from the PGA Tour, 10 from the Asian Tour, and 8 sponsor’s exemptions. That means that there is no cut, so all competitors will be there for the weekend. The will be the third running of the event, and last year’s winner Bo Van Pelt arrives in good form after winning the Perth International last week. Van Pelt is the $9.00 third favourite behind Tiger Woods ($4.25) and Jason Dufner ($8.50), and while Dufner was runner-up to Van Pelt last week, he has been easily the best backed of that trio. Nick Watney is in the betting at $19 ahead of Seung-Yul Noh ($23) and Brendan De Jonge and Jeff Overton (both $26), while John Senden ($31) is the shortest of the five Aussies competing. Ben Crane won in 2010 and is another who has been backed at $34.
The Quad Series netball series continues on Thursday with two matches to be played in Wellington (NZ), and there will be another two in Invercargill on Sunday. There hasn’t been a surprise winner yet, but last week only one of the four favourites was able to cover the line, and ironically that was the one match that appeared the closest on paper. Australia were $1.75 to beat arch rivals New Zealand, but scored their highest score ever against the Kiwi’s, winning 68-48. Thursday’s matches should look predictable as far as winners are concerned with the Diamonds taking on South Africa while the Silver Ferns play England. The make-up of the sides is yet to be determined, but Australia will be without Kim Greene, and have also flagged the possibility of resting other players. That may well give the South Africans a strong chance of finishing inside the handicap.
The doctors told Casey Stoner he would be out of action for 6-8 months when he shattered his ankle in Indianapolis, but here he is a little over 6 weeks later lining up as a heavily backed second favourite in the Australian motoGP! Stoner has had a couple of races back since surgery, and clearly hasn’t been anywhere near his best, but his eyes were always on the race at Philip Island on Sunday. There are only two races left for the season, and Stoner is retiring after that, so he will be keen to add to his imposing record of 5 straight wins in the Aussie GP. Dani Pedrosa was the opening favourite at $2.00 ahead of Stoner at $2.50, then Jorje Lorenzo at $4.00, with the rest at $26 or better. Casey has attracted 75% of the early betting, with the rest for Pedrosa, and he is the form rider having won 5 of his last 6 starts, including a win in the rain shortened Malaysian GP last Sunday. Lorenzo is the interesting rider, there are no takers for him at $4.00, and there is a simple explanation as to why. He leads the riders title by 23 points, so really only has to get around safely to all but wrap it up. It is hard to see him taking any risks at all, whereas Pedrosa needs a win, and Stoner wants a win. It should be a great spectacle, and a great betting event. TattsBet will have a number of additional markets on this race as well as the two lower classes, and we will be betting LIVE throughout the main race.
With only four races to go in the NASCAR Sprint Cup season, there are probably only three main chances left to win the title. Jimmie Johnson is the $2.25 favourite with Brad Keselowski close behind at $2.40, then Denny Hamlin at $3.25. None of that trio finished in the placings at Kansas last week in the race won by $13 chance Matt Kenseth, but all three are well in the betting to win this week’s Fast Relief 500 to be held in Martindale, Virginia. Hamlin and Johnson are the equal $5.00 favourites ahead of Jeff Gordon ($8.00) and then Keselowski at $10. Of the 15 races held at this venue since 2005, Johnson has won five and been placed a couple of times, while Hamlin has won four, including both in 2010. Gordon also won both way back in 2005 but has featured in the placing’s since, so all of those at the head of the betting look like they will fight the race out.
Sebastian Vettel has got the Red Bull team back on track this year, and on exposed form he should add the Indian GP to his list this weekend.
Vettel has won three races on the trot now, and that has made it four this season, and after spending a major portion of the season as second favourite to win the Driver’s Championship, all of a sudden Vettel is now $1.25, with Fernando Alonso out to $3.50. The lead that Vettel has over Alonso is only 6 points, but now that Red Bull cars are back in form, he should win the title. There has been some interest in him at $2.00 to win at the Buddh International Circuit, and Vettel should repeat the dose given he won there last year after qualifying fastest. Alonso has been backed at $5.50 but seems to be well off the pace of the Red Bulls now, while Mark Webber is popular with punters after finishing second to Vettel at his last start. Webber is a $6.00 chance, and did qualify second fastest at this venue last year. The only other driver to attract any early attention has been Lewis Hamilton at $7.50, but he just seems to be out of form since he announced he was leaving McLaren at the end of the season.
Jamie Whincup delivered once for punters at the Gold Coast last weekend, but just fell short on Sunday when attempting to win both races. Whincup went into race 1 as the well backed $1.80 public elect, and was $2.35 equal favourite along with Mark Winterbottom in Sunday’s race. Eventual winner Will Davison (partnered by Mika Salo) was the third favourite at $5.50 and led for most of the race to narrowly beat Whincup. The next fixture is Abu Dhabi in a couple of weeks, and after that there is only Winton and Sydney to come. Whincup is now into $1.15 to win the title with Winterbottom ($8.00) and Craig Lowndes ($9.00) the only chances of an upset.
Pierro has been the Cox Plate favourite for over a month now, but it has been evident ever the since his defeat in the Caulfield Guineas that punters have started to waver about his winning chances. Pierro was $2.75 before Caulfield, but this week has eased from $3.60 out to $4.20, and the signs are there that that price may be extended as well. Green Moon ($5.00-$4.80) is pressing for favouritism, while Ocean Park ($6.50) is a rock solid third pick. Several bets of $2000 have come this week for Ocean Park, and he does look an ideal type for this race. Proisir, the other Gai Waterhouse 3yo is another that has held its place in the market, while All Too Hard attracted a bet of $3000 last week at $9.00 then drew another bet of the same amount at $11.00 after the barrier draw. Of the roughies, Shoot Out has been easily the best backed, firming from $31 into $19 after the draw, and is one horse can adapt to any tempo, and is suited at the distance.
The Geelong Cup raised more questions than it answered, and that only further adds to the intrigue of the Melbourne Cup. Following on from the Caulfield Cup, Dunaden’s Melbourne Cup price was cut to $6.50 while Americain was slashed from $21 into $8.50. Close to $15,000 in bets has come this week for Americain, and the import is now $8.00, but practically every horse in the market has admirers. Gatewood is on the borderline of a Cup start but has been $14 into $12 since his Geelong Cup win, and did attract a bet of $600 each way at $26 prior winning at Geelong. Maluckyday didn’t lose too many friends with his performance at Geelong, and is now a $15 chance, and is a really popular horse with the Australian public. At this stage, Maluckyday has had as many bets placed on him as Dunaden and Americain, but they have been a lot smaller in dollar value. Lights of heaven ran a creditable third in the Caulfield Cup and is another that has been backed this week including one bet of $2000 each way at $26.
The Spring Carnival is well under way in Victoria, and the racing action isn’t only confined to the gallopers. A select field of greyhounds go around in the first main race of the Carnival at the Meadows on Saturday night, and the major prize is a big chance to go to a Queensland competitor. Glen Gallon has drawn the coveted rails box, and after trialling a fast 29.66 at the Meadows last week, has been installed the $2.75 favourite. Don’t Knocka Him, the other Queensland runner, returns to Melbourne after winning the Gold Coast and is on the second line of betting at $4.50, with Australian Cup winner Zara Zulu next in line at 45.50. Track record holder Heston Bale was unlucky last start in the Adelaide Cup won by Spud Regis, but if there is to be any trouble in the run, Heston Bale is the one that will be storming home, and looks good value at $6.00.
Terror to Love went around as the $2.40 favourite in the Ashburton Sprint earlier this week, and his supporters never had a moments worry. That impressive victory has seen his price cut to $2.80 to win the NZ Trotting Cup. That race will be held at Addington on Tuesday November 13. Caribbean Blaster will be flying the flag for Australia and is the second favourite at $6.50 ahead of Fly Like An Eagle ($7.50) and Gold Ace ($9.00). Sushi Sushi is yet to regain his best Australian form in New Zealand but is being kept safe at $11.