TattsBet News 11th October

AFL

Free Agency and Trade Week has ensured that AFL is still in the news, and there has been a lot of early activity on next year’s flag winner. The signing of Brian Lake by Hawthorn saw a price change from $4.50 into $4.25, but that move was based on Lake moving to the Hawks rather than a money coming for the Hawks. It has been a different story with a couple of the other sides however with Sydney, Essendon and the Brisbane Lions all attracting support. While it is difficult to go back to back these days, there is little doubt that Kurt Tippett’s move to Sydney will bolster their chances, and the Swans have had three times as many bets placed on them this week at $7.00 than any other side. Essendon faded out mid- way through the season this year but are expected to improve, with several bets, including one of $1000, forcing the price into $15 after opening at $17. Brisbane may have missed out on Tippett, but expectations are high as the Lions ($67) have been backed to win close to $50,000 in the first week. 

RUGBY LEAGUE 

The 2012 Rugby League season will finish up this weekend after the Test between Australia and New Zealand. After a slow start to the betting week on the test, things have gained momentum and most expect Australia to win easily. The difficulty with this game is trying to work out which side will be able to handle the hot and humid weather in Townsville on Saturday night, and also weighing up which side will be most disadvantaged by having players who have gone several weeks without a match. The ANZAC Test is always a better contest, and it is worth noting that Australia defeated the Kiwis 26-12 in a Four Nations match this time last year. Granted the series was played in the UK, but New Zealand had a terrible tournament and didn’t make the final. Australia opened at $1.20 in this week’s match, but after two days of betting had firmed into $1.18, and the opening line of -12.5 had also moved out to -14. The early signs are that punters think that Australia will win, and win easily. 

RUGBY UNION 

The final two matches of the Rugby Championship saw the spoils shared between punters and bookmakers. New Zealand were backed from an opening $1.52 into $1.43 against South Africa, and the All Blacks delivered the goods, winning 32-16. The support for Argentina to beat Australia continued right up until kick-off, with the Puma’s firming from $1.87 into $1.75. The game wasn’t a great spectacle dominated by penalty kicks, but the 25-19 win by the Wallabies did restore some pride after gathering a massive injury toll leading into the match. The third and final Bledisloe Cup match will be played in Brisbane on Oct 20, and the betting for that match will open next Monday. 

FORMULA 1 

Sebastian Vettel was the first F1 driver this season to get back to back wins when he won the Japanese GP at the weekend, and is $2.35 to make it three in a row in Korea this week. The race in Japan was robbed of a lot of interest in several scrimmages on the first lap, and one of those resulted in the retirement of Championship leader Fernando Alonso. Coming into this race Alonso was $1.40 to win the title, but with Vettel now closing the gap to just 4 points after his win, all of a sudden the betting has been turned on its ear. Vettel is now favourite at $1.52 with Alonso out to $2.45, then Lewis Hamilton at $13.

As mentioned, Vettel is 42.35 to win in Korea, the third time the F1’s have raced in that country. Hamilton is the second pick at $4.50, followed by Alonso ($7.00), Jenson Button ($8.00) and Mark Webber ($9.00). There is no doubt that the Red Bulls have improved with Vettel starting from pole last week, and Webber beside him on the grid. The Aussie had no luck whatsoever, and must be given a strong chance this week. Webber finished third behind Vettel last year (Hamilton second), while Alonso won in 2010 defeating Hamilton and Felipe Massa. TattsBet will be betting LIVE throughout the race in Korea. 

V8 SUPERCARS 

The 50th running of Bathurst provided one of the most exciting finishes ever with second favourite Car 1 (Whincup/Dumbrell) holding on to narrowly defeat Car 52D (Reynolds/Canto). Car 1 went into the race a $4.50 chance behind Car 888 (Lowndes/Luff) who were $4.25, but most of the cars in the market met with heavy support. The publicity surrounding the race was evident in the increased betting this year, but it was interesting to watch the live betting over the last 5 laps. The first two over the line held a commanding lead on the rest of the field, but as was repeatedly pointed out on the coverage, neither had much fuel left. So that saw live betting grind to a halt as nobody was prepared to take the $1.20 for the leader Whincup, and really who could blame them after it was revealed there was only 100ml left in the tank at the finish.

The next event on the calendar will be on the Gold Coast the weekend after this, and the 2.96km street race will test all drivers. It is such a big advantage to qualify at the front of the grid on the Gold Coast that whoever is favourite after qualifying will be at a short quote. It is near on impossible to win from back in the field as there are so few opportunities to pass, but that can all change if there is bad weather. Two races are due to be held, and while it is a team event similar to Bathurst, the driver combinations will change in most instances. Betting for the Gold Coast races will be available this Friday, and there will also be LIVE betting throughout the race. 

MOTOGP

All eyes will be on Casey Stoner this week in the motoGP race in Japan as he makes his comeback after ankle surgery. Stoner has missed the last few races after smashing his ankle in Indianapolis back in August, and although nowhere near 100%, he is looking to compete this week as the Australian GP nears. Dani Pedrosa has been the form rider recently, and is $2.00 to win this week after beating Jorge Lorenzo in Aragon. That pair finished 1-2 in Japan last year with Stoner in third place, and the same trio completely dominate betting this week. Lorenzo is $2.65 with Stoner at $4.50, and there has already been money for Stoner at that quote, even though he doesn’t know himself if he will be able to ride through the pain this week. Stoner has a previous win in Japan in 2010, while Lorenzo won here in 2009, so all three at the head of the betting have form around the course.

NASCAR

Only three cars finished in an action packed Good Sam 500 at Talladega last weekend, and victory went to Matt Kenseth, one of the $11 equal second favourites. Aussie Marcos Ambrose was on track to finish on the podium but was involved in a spectacular crash that put paid to the chances of nearly all of the field.

This week will see the running of the Bank of America 500 in Charlotte, and Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson are the co $6.00 favourites ahead of Kasey Kahne ($8.00), then Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch both at $9.00. Kahne and Johnson have won numerous times around this course, with Kahne winning here earlier in the season, as well as winning in 2006 and 2008. Johnson has six wins here from the 19 races held since 2003, and can all but wrap up the title with a win this week. 

GOLF

Veteran Ernie Els has been heavily backed to win the Frys.Com Open this week. The event will be held at the Corde Valle Golf Club, San Martin, California, and will be the fifth running at this particular course. Els is the $17 equal favourite with Nicolas Colsaerts, and next in line are Bud Cauley and Vijay Singh at $21. Singh is another that can be categorised as an elder statesman, but he has his share of fans as well as he is the second worst result for TattsBet behind Els. Bryce Molder won last year and is $41 to win again, while Aaron Baddeley is the shortest of the Australian contingent at $34.

The Portugal Masters is the European Tour event this week, and Italian Francesco Molinari is the opening $15 favourite to win. Martin Kaymer is in the second line of betting at $19 ahead of George Coetzee and Padraig Harrington at $21, then Alexander Noren and Thorbjorn Olesen at $23. Coetzee tied for third here last year behind Tom Lewis ($126 this year), while Olesen finished second in the links event last week. Whilst there are a lot of solid formlines coming into the Portugal Masters , Molinari deserves top billing as he has only missed one cut this year, and finished second here in 2009 and 2010. That second in 2010 was behind Australian Richard Green who is again in the field and quoted at $101, but has failed to recapture that form.

NBL

Three of the four round 1 favourites won in the NBL last week, but not many could see Perth dishing out a 93-72 drubbing of the Breakers in New Zealand. Perth may have been the opening $3.25 favourites to win the title ahead of New Zealand at $4.00, but the Breakers were backed from $1.50 into $1.45 to win the season opener. There was definitely a lot more interest in the first round than the corresponding round last season, and the Channel 10 televised game on Sunday between Adelaide and Melbourne commanded most attention. Punters were on the mark in this match as the 36er’s easily covered the 6.5 point line, winning by 23 points. The major disappointment with the coverage was that it wasn’t live across the nation as it was televised at 1pm in each State, so was in delay in several states.

Following on from Round 1 results, Perth have firmed into $2.75 to win the title ahead of New Zealand ($4.50), Adelaide ($5.50), Cairns ($7.00) and Townsville ($8.00). The Crocs have a big game at home on Sunday when they face Perth, and a lot will depend on whether their two imports are cleared to play. They were seriously undermanned when going down by 12 points to Cairns last week, but if Ervin and Abney get the green light to play this week, then Townsville will go in as slight favourites. New Zealand host Adelaide in the first match on Friday, and the Breakers will be warm favourites even though they went down to Perth last week. There was a stage in the second quarter where Perth piled on 17 unanswered points, and that all but killed off the winning hopes of the Breakers. If New Zealand are to be treated as a serious threat to make it three titles in a row then they will need to improve their dismal rebounding display from last week and get a win over Adelaide.

NOTABLE BETS

$7,000 at $1.18 Australia to beat New Zealand Rugby League Test (into $1.17)
$12,000 at $2.85 Pierro to win Cox Plate (into $2.20)