Collingwood v Carlton - The jungle drums are sounding down Lygon Street and those gripping the tom toms are serving neither reason nor generosity on their pizzas. The Blues looked magnificent when they smashed the Pies in Round 3. Matthew Kreuzer looked like John Nicholls and C. Judd was happy to hand top billing to Marc Murphy. Since then injury has taken its toll, and the side looks bereft of confidence and belief. Meanwhile the Pies, also injury-ridden, have hit their straps. The Blues will be enthusiastic, but state-of-mind will prevail here. The Pies by 21 points
North Melbourne v West Coast - Conditions in Hobart will play a part in this. The bureau is getting it right more often these days and I’m happy to trust their forecast of fair footy weather . That suits both sides, but especially helps the Eagles whose list of talls won’t want it too cold and grey and damp. North had found some confidence and they will be right in this, at their chosen home. Daniel Wells has been something of a barometer for North and the Eagles will look to annoy the billy goats out of him with a Selwood some other serial hard-head. The Kangas with a chance (and a good proposition at the line), but West Coast will be too good in the big man department. The Eagles by 9 points
Melbourne v Richmond - The Tiges played scintillating footy in Adelaide last Saturday, but couldn’t sustain it. They’ll win plenty of the football in this contest and if they use it in the way they did during that first quarter at Footy Park the Dees are in for a tough afternoon. The Tiges will have too much grunt and run in the mid-field. They could kick a cricket score here. Richmond by 45 points
Sydney v Brisbane - Given dry conditions, this will be an entertaining match. Michael Voss has shown his willingness to take the game on rather than put players behind the ball and this has led to some free-flowing matches. Despite their reputation for the lock-down, the Swans can run-and-gun as well, with pace to burn as they stream out of their resolute defence. This is a big test for Brisbane . It will tell them where they’re at. They’re at about 12th. Sydney by 35 points
St Kilda v Essendon - The key factor here is Etihad. You’ve got to love Sainters like Lenny Hayes, but they were no match for the lightning pace and ball movement of the irrepressible Kangas last Sunday evening. The whole match was a frenzy. The Bombers started manically against the Doggies, and they looked a million bucks. So the form-line says that quick, free-flowing teams can outrun the Saints . That’s what will happen here. Essendon by 31 points
Port v Adelaide - Port have been brilliant at getting themselves up for these Showdowns. Taylor Walker’s uber-testosterone helps their cause. But not enough. Port’s effort could not be faulted against Geelong, and there is no doubt they’ll be giving their all in this. But the Crows’ list is well ahead of Port’s in its development. The Crows should have too much system…too much of everything, really. Adelaide by 26 points
Hawthorn v GWS - Children should avert their eyes here. If the Hawks on their home dung-hill are in any way motivated they could embarrass GWS . I think some of the Giants will get a footy lesson here. They should enjoy the close-up view, and look forward to the year when it’s their turn. Shiraz Sheedy will need to be at his creating and comforting best. Hawthorn by 120 points
Gold Coast v Geelong - Neither of these sides is travelling too well. The reasons for the Suns poor showing are hard to identify. The reasons for Geelong’s middling run are very clear: they are struggling in the ruck. Trent West is a good player, down on confidence. The Cats might be wishing they’d given him more games over the past three or four years. But the boys from Corio Bay are polished enough to plug any holes, especially against the battling sides. I reckon the Suns can give Geelong, notorious slow starters they are at the moment, a scare. But the Cats will pull away and win unconvincingly (again) by 20 points. (I’d be contemplating the Suns at the line)
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs - Fremantle are still a sneaky chance to make the Top 8. Their draw is reasonable. They must win games like this convincingly. They will use their home ground to advantage in a fixture made all the more difficult by the Doggies injury woes. The Dockers by 40 points
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